{"title":"Who votes after a coup? Theory and evidence from Egypt","authors":"Elizabeth R. Nugent, S. Brooke","doi":"10.1080/13629395.2022.2033512","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT More than half of leaders who come to power through military coups hold elections to legitimate their regimes, yet there is extensive subnational variation in how citizens accept or reject this process. In this paper, we examine district-by-district voting patterns in Egyptian presidential elections a few months following the July 2013 military coup to identify the ecological correlates of three district-level measures of citizen engagement with the electoral process: voter turnout, valid (non-spoilt) ballots, and votes cast for the regime-affiliated candidate. Controlling for baseline measures of these outcomes from the free and fair presidential elections prior to the coup, we find support for the enduring effect of partisanship: districts with higher support for the deposed candidate in pre-coup elections featured systematically lower turnout and rates of valid voting in post-coup elections.","PeriodicalId":46666,"journal":{"name":"Mediterranean Politics","volume":"28 1","pages":"611 - 638"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2022-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Mediterranean Politics","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2022.2033512","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AREA STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
ABSTRACT More than half of leaders who come to power through military coups hold elections to legitimate their regimes, yet there is extensive subnational variation in how citizens accept or reject this process. In this paper, we examine district-by-district voting patterns in Egyptian presidential elections a few months following the July 2013 military coup to identify the ecological correlates of three district-level measures of citizen engagement with the electoral process: voter turnout, valid (non-spoilt) ballots, and votes cast for the regime-affiliated candidate. Controlling for baseline measures of these outcomes from the free and fair presidential elections prior to the coup, we find support for the enduring effect of partisanship: districts with higher support for the deposed candidate in pre-coup elections featured systematically lower turnout and rates of valid voting in post-coup elections.
期刊介绍：
Mediterranean Politics is the only refereed academic journal to focus on the politics, international relations and political economy of the entire Mediterranean area - "Mediterranean" here being understood to refer to all those countries whose borders are defined partially or wholly by the Mediterranean Sea. This focus involves consideration not only of the region itself, but also the significance of developments there for other parts of the world. The journal analyses the central issues that concern Mediterranean countries and assesses both local and international responses to them. While its prime concern is with political developments, the focus of Mediterranean Politics extends to all the factors and dimensions affecting political life.
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