Policy Effects on Mixed-Citizenship, Same-Sex Unions: A Triple-Difference Analysis

Abstract

After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in 2013, same-sex partners of U.S. citizens became eligible for spousal visas. Since then, the United States has seen a rapid rise in same-sex, mixed-citizenship couples. However, this effect varies greatly depending on the lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) policy context of the noncitizen’s country of origin. Using waves 2008–2019 of the American Community Survey, this study employs a triple-difference design to examine how the policy environment of the origin country moderates the effect of the end of DOMA on incidence of mixed-citizenship, same-sex couples in the United States. Quasi-Poisson models with two-way fixed effects show that, after 2013, individuals in mixed-citizenship, same-sex couples coming from countries with progressive LGB policies saw a more than 60% increase in incidence relative to those in different-sex or same-citizenship couples. Meanwhile, those from countries with regressive laws experienced no significant increase. These results are corroborated by analyses of individual policies. We argue that the country-of-origin policy context affects and is affected by local norms and attitudes as well as individuals’ material circumstances. This nexus of factors leaves a lasting impact on immigrants that shapes migration decisions, union formation, and responses to policy shifts.