Spatial Analysis of Urban Settlement Development in Kudus District with Cellular automata marcov Model (Case Study: Kota District, Bae District, Jati District and Kaliwungu District)

Abstract

The increase in the need for residential land will encourage changes in land use functions. Monitoring the development of urban settlements in Kudus Regency, specifically in the Districts of Bae, Jati, Kaliwungu and Kota needs to be carried out so as not to cause a transfer of land use functions that deviate from the applicable RTRW. Monitoring can be done by modeling. The modeling of urban settlement development is then combined with GIS to support the spatial analysis. This study aims to determine the changes in land use function for urban settlements in 2010-2020 with the overlay identity method, apply the CA-Marcov method in predicting land use for urban settlements in 2030 and find the value of modeling conformity with the RTRW map and its development pattern using the average nearest neighbor. The data used are WordView images in 2010 and 2015, SPOT-7 images in 2020 and the RTRW Map of Kab. Holy year 2012-2032. The results showed that the development of urban settlements in 2010-2015 was 162,375 Ha, while in 2015-2020 it was 55,978 Ha. During 2010 to 2020, the food crop agricultural area changed its function into urban settlements amounting to 126,927 Ha. The area of land for urban settlements as a result of the prediction of land use in 2030 is 3323,285 Ha, where the agricultural area for food crops is the largest land converted into urban settlements of 321,803 Ha. The value of the suitability of the predicted use of 2030 with the RTRW map is 71.42%. The pattern of urban settlement development in 2030 is random.