Using geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) for pedestrian crash severity modeling: Exploring spatially varying relationships with natural and built environment factors

Abstract

Although a large number of studies have tried to explore the relationship between built environment and pedestrian crash severity in developed countries, there is a lack of similar studies in the context of developing countries. Methodologically, the contributory factors influencing pedestrian crash severity are commonly identified through global logistic regression (GLR) models. However, these models are unable to capture the spatial variation in the relationships between the dependent and independent variables. The local logistic regression model, such as geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR), can potentially overcome this issue. The application of local logistic regression to model pedestrian crash severity is absent in the literature. Therefore, this study aimed to apply the GWLR technique to explore spatially heterogeneous relationships between natural and built environment-related factors and pedestrian crash severity in Dhaka, the capital city of a developing country: Bangladesh. First, using secondary pedestrian crash data, a GLR model was developed to identify significant contributory factors influencing pedestrian crash severity. Results of the model showed that the probability of fatal pedestrian crash occurrence increased at night, in unlit locations, and during adverse weather conditions. In addition, the likelihood of a fatal crash decreases when medians exist on roads and around institutional land use. Also, the chance of fatal crashes increased on straight and flat roads and at locations with more bus stops. Finally, this study explored spatial variation in the effect intensity of these significant variables across the study area using the GWLR technique. High intensity variation across the study area was found for road geometry and institutional land use factors. On the other hand, low intensity variation was found for light conditions and the presence of median factors. This technique can be applied in any area, and the results would help provide insights into the spatial dimension of traffic safety.