Explaining Changes in Threat Appraisal, Coping Appraisal, and Flood Risk-Reducing Behavior Using Panel Data From a Nation-Wide Survey in Germany

Abstract

Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) has become a widely-used theoretical framework to explain the risk-reducing behavior of individuals toward flooding and other natural hazards. Despite a quickly growing body of literature applying PMT in the context of flooding, insights into changes in PMT components and risk-reducing behavior are largely lacking due to a predominant use of cross-sectional research designs. In this study, we examine how various intrapersonal sources of information relate to changes in PMT components and risk-reducing behavior, using unique panel data (n = 2,680) from a survey in Germany and a fixed-effects regression modeling approach. In line with PMT, we find that various intrapersonal sources of information, like prior experience, relate to changes in PMT components. We also find that coping appraisals of PMT change in a direction negatively related to risk-reducing behavior over time, posing a challenge for risk communication and the envisaged shift to integrated flood risk management.