FORECAST ANALYSIS AND SLIDING MODE CONTROL ON A STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH ALERTNESS AND VACCINATION

Abstract

In this paper, a stochastic SEIR epidemic model is studied with alertness and vaccination. The goal is to stabilize the infectious disease system quickly. The dynamic behavior of the model is analyzed and an integral sliding mode controller with distributed compensation is designed. By using Lyapunov function method, the sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of global positive solutions and the existence of ergodic stationary distributions are obtained. The stochastic center manifold and stochastic average method are used to simplify the system into a one-dimensional Markov diffusion process. The stochastic stability and Hopf bifurcation are analyzed using singular boundary theory. An integral sliding mode controller with non-parallel distributed compensation is designed by linear matrix inequality (LMI) method, which realizes the stability of system and prevents the outbreak of epidemic disease. The correction of theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of controller are validated using numerical simulation performed in MATLAB/Simulink.