Epidemic modeling for the resurgence of COVID-19 in Chinese local communities

Abstract

COVID-19 is a constantly challenging global health issue due to its strong intensity, rapid mutation and high infectiousness. The new Delta and Omicron variants have triggered massive outbreaks worldwide. Even China, which has done a good job in outbreak prevention, is still heavily affected by the virus. The long-term fight against multiple COVID-19 outbreaks is ongoing. In this study, we propose an SEIQR model that considers the incubation period and quarantine measurement. We verified our model using actual outbreak data from four Chinese cities. Numerical simulations show that a five-day delay results in a double resurgence scale. Our model can be used as a tool to understand the spread of the virus quantitatively and provide a reference for policymaking accordingly.