From Exploratory Scenarios to Plans: Bridging the Gap

Abstract

The events of the last two years have vividly illustrated the uncertainty of our cities’ long-term futures. The effects of climate change are becoming increasingly severe, with more frequent and unpredictable storms, flooding, heatwaves, and wildfires. Optimistic predictions about the arrival of automated vehicles have proven premature, but new technologies like artificial intelligence, online shopping, e-bikes, and smart infrastructure continue to confront urban planners with new opportunities and challenges. Most dramatically, the COVID-19 pandemic has not only resulted in major short-term disruptions, but also introduced long-term uncertainties about telecommuting, public health, and more. Such uncertainties have fostered a growing interest among planners in conducting long-range planning using exploratory scenarios.1