Modelling the dynamics of the industrial vanadium cycle using the WORLD7 Integrated Assessment Model

Abstract

The industrial dynamics of vanadium was simulated using the integrated assessment model WORLD7. The vanadium market may see strongly increased demand in the near future, and a pertinent question is if the new demands can be met. The WORLD7 model was used to assess the risk for future supply shortages. The global presence of vanadium in geological deposits was found to be about 710 million ton of vanadium. The extractable part was estimated to be about 60–70 million ton of vanadium, the rest being technically or economically inaccessible. Vanadium extraction is dominated by secondary extraction from primary metal production. The simulations suggests that there will be physical scarcity under business-as-usual for vanadium in after 2040. The vanadium price increases after 2030 according to the simulations, as a response to the scarcity. The introduction of a large-scale use of vanadium in battery technologies in the near future would aggravate future scarcity, even with more efficient recycling. Large scale use of vanadium for batteries, may keep vanadium prices high and require enhanced recycling to counter the threat of physical shortage after 2030.