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Agricultural trade environmental performance and its geographical consistency with global food security: An integrated water-energy-land-materials-pollution perspective 农业贸易环境绩效及其与全球粮食安全的地理一致性:水-能源-土地-材料-污染综合视角
IF 7.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100296
Zhizhuo Zhang , Junxia Ma , Qiting Zuo
Countries with high domestic food security risks may simultaneously face inequalities in environmental pressures embodied in global agricultural trade. Here, we effectively integrate input-output analysis and data envelopment analysis models to measure the environmental performance and potential for reducing environmental pressures in global agricultural trade, considering six dimensions: water consumption, energy use, land occupation, raw material inputs, nitrogen emissions, and phosphorus emissions. Additionally, a national food security assessment method based on fuzzy membership function is constructed. Moreover, a geographic matching relationship identification method is adaptively developed to quantitatively reveal the geographical consistency between environmental performance in transnational agricultural supply and domestic food security levels across 103 economies. Findings reveal that nearly 90 % of countries exhibit a strong geographical consistency relationship between their environmental performance embodied in global agricultural trade and their domestic food security levels. Low-income countries with inadequate food security often endure unequal exchanges of high environmental costs and limited economic benefits in global agricultural trade. More than half of the countries with high redundancy in environmental cost inputs are located in Eastern Europe, Africa, and Central Asia. Pronounced spatial disparities are observed in global food security levels, with unsustainable supply guarantees and agricultural water stress emerging as the primary constraints on food security in African and Central Asian countries, respectively. On the basis of trade regulation, balancing food risk management in developing countries with the release of redundant agricultural environmental inputs is an effective response to this geographical consistency.
国内粮食安全风险较高的国家可能同时面临全球农业贸易所体现的环境压力方面的不平等。在此,我们将投入产出分析和数据包络分析模型有效地结合起来,考虑了六个维度:水消耗、能源使用、土地占用、原材料投入、氮排放和磷排放,来衡量全球农业贸易的环境绩效和减少环境压力的潜力。在此基础上,构建了一种基于模糊隶属函数的国家食品安全评价方法。此外,本文还自适应地开发了地理匹配关系识别方法,以定量揭示103个经济体跨国农业供应环境绩效与国内粮食安全水平之间的地理一致性。研究结果表明,近90%的国家在其体现在全球农业贸易中的环境绩效与其国内粮食安全水平之间表现出很强的地理一致性关系。粮食安全不足的低收入国家往往在全球农业贸易中承受高环境成本和有限经济利益的不平等交换。在环境成本投入高冗余的国家中,有一半以上位于东欧、非洲和中亚。全球粮食安全水平存在明显的空间差异,不可持续的供应保障和农业用水压力分别成为非洲和中亚国家粮食安全的主要制约因素。在贸易管制的基础上,平衡发展中国家的粮食风险管理与释放多余的农业环境投入是对这种地理一致性的有效回应。
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引用次数: 0
Green manure enhances ecological pest management by triggering systemic resistance in rice through reshaped rhizosphere microbiome 绿肥通过重塑根际微生物群,引发水稻的系统性抗性,从而增强有害生物的生态管理
IF 7.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resenv.2025.100285
Jiaqi Sun , Yangyang Hou , Yueqiu Liu , Lei Zhang , Dianjie Xie , Lin Ma , Jixing Xia , Yue Qi , Jiale You , Thomas W. Sappington , Yuhu Lv , Xingfu Jiang
Ecological pest management (EPM) is gaining increased attention with concerns regarding human health and the environment. Planting green manure (GM) represents a significant practice in EPM; meanwhile, GM enhances crop production and reduces environmental footprints via its effect on the soil microbiome. GM's direct inhibitory effect on pests and its protective effect on natural enemies have been widely reported. However, the impact of GM's soil legacy effect on pests and the underlying molecular mechanisms remains poorly characterized. In this study, three-year field trials, greenhouse experiments, and multi-omics integration were conducted to address the gap. Compared to winter fallow treatment, GM significantly reduced the occurrence of rice major pests by 43.8–94.2 %, including Mythimna separata, Cnaphalocrocis medinalis, Chilo suppressalis, and rice planthoppers. The infestation rate of C. suppressalis, consumption by M. separata, and oviposition by Nilaparvata lugens were reduced by 64.3–87.4 %, 38.7–39.9 % and 45.3 %, respectively. Mechanistically, GM upregulated key defense-related genes and stimulated biosynthesis of flavonoids and alkaloids, alongside the accumulation of jasmonic acid and salicylic acid, indicating synergistic activation of induced systemic resistance in rice plants. Rhizosphere soil analysis revealed GM-driven enrichment of plant-beneficial taxa (Rhizophagus irregularis, Bradyrhizobium erythrophlei, Pseudolabrys sp.), alongside enhanced soil multifunctionality (N/C cycling) and nutrient mobilization. Our PLS-PM results supported a scenario in which GM-induced pest suppression is potentially mediated by microbiome-driven defense priming. Our findings provide fundamental insights into EPM and highlight how GM modulates the rhizosphere ecosystem and further enhances aboveground systemic resistance in rice. This study offers a potential solution for reducing synthetic inputs in crop production, which contributes to agroecosystem sustainability.
随着对人类健康和环境的关注,生态病虫害管理日益受到重视。绿肥种植是生态环境管理的重要实践;同时,转基因作物通过对土壤微生物群的影响提高了作物产量,减少了环境足迹。转基因对害虫的直接抑制作用和对天敌的保护作用已被广泛报道。然而,转基因土壤遗留效应对害虫的影响及其潜在的分子机制尚不清楚。本研究通过为期三年的田间试验、温室试验和多组学整合来解决这一差距。与冬季休耕处理相比,转基因水稻主要害虫(稻纵卷叶螟、稻纵卷叶螟、稻纵卷叶螟和稻飞虱)的发生率显著降低43.8% ~ 94.2%。结果表明,经处理后,褐僵菌侵染率降低64.3% ~ 87.4%,褐僵菌消耗率降低38.7% ~ 39.9%,褐僵菌产卵率降低45.3%。在机制上,转基因上调了关键防御相关基因,刺激了黄酮类和生物碱的生物合成,同时茉莉酸和水杨酸的积累,表明协同激活了诱导水稻植株的系统性抗性。根际土壤分析显示,转基因驱动的植物有益类群(Rhizophagus irregularis, erythrophlei Bradyrhizobium, Pseudolabrys sp.)的富集,以及土壤多功能性(N/C循环)和养分动员的增强。我们的PLS-PM结果支持转基因诱导的害虫抑制可能是由微生物组驱动的防御启动介导的。我们的研究结果为EPM提供了基本的见解,并强调了转基因如何调节根际生态系统并进一步增强水稻的地上系统抗性。这项研究为减少作物生产中的合成投入提供了一个潜在的解决方案,这有助于农业生态系统的可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
The complex network transfer pathways and evolutionary patterns of embodied carbon emissions in China's agricultural industry Chain: An empirical analysis based on multi-node flow characteristics 中国农业产业链隐含碳排放的复杂网络转移路径与演化模式——基于多节点流特征的实证分析
IF 7.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100291
Lehua Gao , Wenwen Sun , Wu-lan-tuo-ya Bao , Bo Cao
Against the backdrop of the intertwining challenges of global climate change and agricultural sustainable development, agriculture serves not only as a fundamental industry but also as a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. As a major agricultural nation, China still lacks a clear understanding of the carbon flow processes within its agricultural industrial chain, which hampers the formulation of targeted emission reduction strategies. To systematically reveal the transfer structure and evolutionary patterns of agriculture-related carbon emissions and support the low-carbon transition of the industry in alignment with the “dual carbon” goals, this study develops an integrated “input-output and complex network” coupling framework and conducts an analysis based on six years of input-output tables. Key findings reveal a three-phase evolution of agricultural carbon emissions (growth, peak, and plateau), with 71.55 % of emissions concentrated in four sectors: agriculture, food processing, food manufacturing, and fertilizer production. The construction (S31) and basic chemical raw materials manufacturing (S16) are identified as the primary sectors for embodied carbon inflow, while electricity and heat production and supply (S21) and petroleum and nuclear fuel processing (S15) serve as the core sectors for embodied carbon outflow. Food processing (S5) and specialty chemical products manufacturing (S17) play critical intermediary roles. The “fertilizer manufacturing → agriculture” pathway shows the highest carbon transfer volume, while “agriculture → food processing” remains a stable high-carbon-flow route. The “pesticide manufacturing → agriculture” pathway has intensified significantly since 2012. Notably, the livestock sector achieved reduced embodied carbon transfer despite production scale expansion. At the upstream stage of the industrial chain, agriculture (S1) and the food processing industry (S5) exhibit a clear transition in the carbon emission structure of the high-carbon sectors they drive during production—shifting from reliance on petroleum-based fuels toward electricity as the dominant energy source. At the downstream stage, driven by consumption demand from food-related industries, the resulting carbon emissions are highly concentrated in the paper and paper products industry (S29), accounting for more than 80 % of the total. Community detection identifies stable modular structures, revealing the systematic dependencies of embodied carbon flows. The study concludes by proposing enhanced technology adoption and optimized intermediate input management as key policy recommendations for agricultural carbon mitigation.
在全球气候变化与农业可持续发展相互交织的背景下,农业不仅是基础产业,也是温室气体排放的重要来源。中国作为一个农业大国,对农业产业链内的碳流过程仍缺乏清晰的认识,不利于制定有针对性的减排战略。为系统揭示农业碳排放的转移结构与演化模式,支持产业向“双碳”目标的低碳转型,本研究构建了“投入产出与复杂网络”的综合耦合框架,并基于6年投入产出表进行了分析。主要研究结果揭示了农业碳排放的三个阶段演变(增长、峰值和平台期),其中71.55%的排放集中在四个部门:农业、食品加工、食品制造和肥料生产。建筑业(S31)和基础化工原料制造业(S16)是隐含碳流入的主要行业,电力和热力生产和供应(S21)以及石油和核燃料加工(S15)是隐含碳流出的核心行业。食品加工(S5)和特种化工产品制造(S17)起着关键的中介作用。“肥料制造→农业”路径碳转移量最高,“农业→食品加工”路径仍是稳定的高碳流路径。自2012年以来,“农药制造→农业”路径明显强化。值得注意的是,畜牧部门在生产规模扩大的情况下实现了隐含碳转移的减少。在产业链的上游阶段,农业(S1)和食品加工业(S5)在生产过程中,其驱动的高碳行业的碳排放结构发生了明显的转变——从依赖石油燃料转向以电力为主要能源。在下游阶段,受食品相关行业消费需求的驱动,由此产生的碳排放高度集中在纸及纸制品行业(S29),占总量的80%以上。群落检测识别稳定的模块结构,揭示隐含碳流的系统依赖关系。研究最后提出了加强技术采用和优化中间投入管理作为农业碳减排的关键政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Bridging scale-mismatch: Managing neglected anthropogenic stresses on environmental sustainability on the Tibet Plateau 弥合规模错配:管理被忽视的西藏高原环境可持续性人为压力
IF 7.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100290
Jian Zhang , Kan Zhou , Jie Fan , Youkun Zhang
Global plateau regions face intensifying anthropogenic activities, yet sustainability efforts are frequently constrained by uncertainties in stress assessment and mismatches between governance scales and environmental processes. To address this gap, we developed an integrated multi-source framework to assess anthropogenic stress, overcoming the limitations of traditional single-factor approaches. Empirical evidence from the Tibet Plateau indicates that although overall stress levels remain low, high-intensity stress exhibits notable clustering. This spatial heterogeneity is identified as the fundamental driver of governance scale mismatches. We further reveal compounded spatial and hierarchical mismatches between governance units and stressor distribution, evidenced by 48.6 % of township units displaying stress levels that diverge from their aggregated county-level assessments. These mismatches are particularly acute in agro-pastoral areas and are further exacerbated by temporal mismatches driven by seasonal visits. Scenario simulations based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) indicate that current moderate policies are insufficient to curb rising stress. Conversely, a transformation to the strictest synergistic governance mode is required, which is projected to reduce anthropogenic stress by 50.5 % on the plateau. Finally, we propose a novel plateau-adapted cross-scale synergistic governance paradigm, offering a pathway to strengthen regional resource and environmental sustainability while contributing to the global sustainability agenda.
全球高原地区面临着日益加剧的人为活动,但可持续性努力经常受到压力评估的不确定性和治理规模与环境过程之间不匹配的制约。为了解决这一差距,我们开发了一个综合的多源框架来评估人为压力,克服了传统单因素方法的局限性。来自青藏高原的经验证据表明,尽管总体应力水平保持在较低水平,但高强度应力表现出显著的聚类性。这种空间异质性被认为是治理规模错配的根本驱动因素。我们进一步揭示了治理单位与压力源分布之间的复合空间和层次不匹配,48.6%的乡镇单位显示的压力水平与其县级综合评估不同。这些不匹配在农牧区尤其严重,并因季节性访问导致的时间不匹配而进一步加剧。基于共享社会经济路径(ssp)的情景模拟表明,目前适度的政策不足以遏制压力的上升。相反,需要向最严格的协同治理模式转变,预计这将使高原的人为压力减少50.5%。最后,我们提出了一种新的适应高原的跨尺度协同治理范式,为加强区域资源和环境的可持续性,同时为全球可持续性议程做出贡献提供了途径。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative life cycle assessment of olive (Olea europaea L.) production under different agricultural systems: Environmental trade-offs and sustainability insights 不同农业系统下橄榄(Olea europaea L.)生产的生命周期比较评估:环境权衡和可持续性见解
IF 7.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100288
Makrem Cherni , Hajer Ben Ammar , Mohamed Guesmi , Rabii Lanwer , Yassine Hidri , Khaled Ouertani , Hakim Boulal , Boubaker Dhehibi , Aymen Frija , Ajmi Larbi

Introduction

Olive cultivation is a major agroecosystem in the Mediterranean basin, yet the environmental performance of its production systems remains poorly quantified, particularly in North Africa where life cycle inventory (LCI) data are limited.

Methods

This study applied a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to eight representative olive production systems (traditional, integrated, and intensive). Primary data were obtained from field surveys and farm records, while secondary data from the Ecoinvent database were used for background processes. Environmental impacts were evaluated per hectare and per ton of olives for global warming potential, acidification, eutrophication and water consumption.

Results

Fertilization and soil management emerged as dominant hotspots across all assessed impact categories, with synthetic inputs contributing up to 576 kg CO2-eq/ha to global warming potential and driving nutrient-related burdens. Water consumption ranged from 0.98 to 1767 m3/ha, primarily influenced by irrigation intensity. Overall global warming potential varied from 617 to 2583 kg CO2-eq/ha, reflecting substantial differences in input levels and resource-use efficiency among systems.

Discussion and conclusions

The results demonstrate that environmental performance is strongly shaped by fertilizer regimes, irrigation practices, and soil management. Precision nutrient management, optimized irrigation, reduced tillage and agroecological interventions could substantially reduce impacts. This study provides one of the first structured LCAs for Tunisian olive systems and offers essential evidence to support the development of robust regional LCI datasets for Mediterranean olive production.
橄榄种植是地中海盆地的主要农业生态系统,但其生产系统的环境绩效仍然缺乏量化,特别是在生命周期清单(LCI)数据有限的北非。方法采用比较生命周期评价(LCA)方法对8个具有代表性的橄榄生产系统(传统、综合和集约化)进行分析。主要数据来自实地调查和农场记录,而来自Ecoinvent数据库的次要数据用于后台处理。对每公顷和每吨橄榄的环境影响进行了评估,包括全球变暖潜势、酸化、富营养化和用水量。结果在所有评估的影响类别中,施肥和土壤管理成为主要热点,其中合成投入对全球变暖潜势的贡献高达576千克二氧化碳当量/公顷,并导致营养相关负担。用水量在0.98 ~ 1767 m3/ha之间,主要受灌溉强度的影响。总体全球变暖潜势在617 ~ 2583 kg co2当量/公顷之间变化,反映了系统间投入水平和资源利用效率的巨大差异。讨论与结论结果表明,环境绩效在很大程度上取决于肥料制度、灌溉方式和土壤管理。精确的养分管理、优化的灌溉、减少耕作和农业生态干预可以大大减少影响。本研究为突尼斯橄榄系统提供了首批结构化LCI之一,并为支持开发地中海橄榄生产的强大区域LCI数据集提供了重要证据。
{"title":"Comparative life cycle assessment of olive (Olea europaea L.) production under different agricultural systems: Environmental trade-offs and sustainability insights","authors":"Makrem Cherni ,&nbsp;Hajer Ben Ammar ,&nbsp;Mohamed Guesmi ,&nbsp;Rabii Lanwer ,&nbsp;Yassine Hidri ,&nbsp;Khaled Ouertani ,&nbsp;Hakim Boulal ,&nbsp;Boubaker Dhehibi ,&nbsp;Aymen Frija ,&nbsp;Ajmi Larbi","doi":"10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100288","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100288","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><div>Olive cultivation is a major agroecosystem in the Mediterranean basin, yet the environmental performance of its production systems remains poorly quantified, particularly in North Africa where life cycle inventory (LCI) data are limited.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This study applied a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to eight representative olive production systems (traditional, integrated, and intensive). Primary data were obtained from field surveys and farm records, while secondary data from the Ecoinvent database were used for background processes. Environmental impacts were evaluated per hectare and per ton of olives for global warming potential, acidification, eutrophication and water consumption<strong>.</strong></div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Fertilization and soil management emerged as dominant hotspots across all assessed impact categories, with synthetic inputs contributing up to 576 kg CO<sub>2</sub>-eq/ha to global warming potential and driving nutrient-related burdens. Water consumption ranged from 0.98 to 1767 m<sup>3</sup>/ha, primarily influenced by irrigation intensity. Overall global warming potential varied from 617 to 2583 kg CO<sub>2</sub>-eq/ha, reflecting substantial differences in input levels and resource-use efficiency among systems.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion and conclusions</h3><div>The results demonstrate that environmental performance is strongly shaped by fertilizer regimes, irrigation practices, and soil management. Precision nutrient management, optimized irrigation, reduced tillage and agroecological interventions could substantially reduce impacts. This study provides one of the first structured LCAs for Tunisian olive systems and offers essential evidence to support the development of robust regional LCI datasets for Mediterranean olive production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34479,"journal":{"name":"Resources Environment and Sustainability","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 100288"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Phosphorus mobilization induced by bio-based fertilizers from soils with varying phosphorus retention capacities 生物基肥料对不同持磷能力土壤中磷的动员作用
IF 7.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100297
Kari Ylivainio , Risto Uusitalo , Johanna Nikama , Andrea Bauerle , Antonio Delgado
Phosphate fertilizer production relies on finite mineral resources. However, much of the phosphorus (P) taken up by crops eventually ends up in different waste streams. Ensuring P supply for agricultural sustainability requires a circular economy approach to producing bio-based fertilizers (BBFs) from these nutrient-rich side streams. This necessitates addressing not only the fertilizer value of BBFs but also the often-overlooked environmental impacts, which are surely affected not only by BBFs composition but also by soil properties. This study aimed to assess P losses promoted by BBFs, depending on their nature and the properties of soil to which they are applied, using a rain simulation after a 3-week incubation. To this end, 11 BBFs and triple superphosphate (TSP) were applied on soils originating from Finland (FI, pH 5.7), Germany (DE, pH 7.4), and Spain (ES, pH 8.1). The BBFs encompass a wide range of raw materials (plants, manure, animal by-products, sewage sludge) and production technologies (anaerobic digestion and composting, fermentation and distillation, various thermal treatments, and precipitation). The concentrations of dissolved reactive P (DRP) and molybdate-unreactive P (MU-P) in percolation water varied greatly depending on the soil properties and the P sources. Soil P tests that extract easily soluble P fractions predicted DRP concentrations in percolation water better than those extracting less soluble P fractions. The highest P concentration, especially DRP, was measured in the low P retention DE soil mixed with TSP. In acidic and calcareous soils, TSP, digested and composted pig slurry, and mineral/precipitate BBFs led to the greatest DRP mobilization. Organic BBFs containing tricalcium/hydroxyapatite and ash-based ones led to the least P mobilization in all soils. Granulation of BBFs effectively reduced P losses among BBFs with similar P speciation, while also offering improved handling and P utilization. Thus, compared with soluble mineral P fertilizers, BBFs offer a means to reduce P losses; however, minimizing P losses requires knowledge of both soil and BBF properties.
磷肥生产依赖于有限的矿产资源。然而,大部分被作物吸收的磷最终进入了不同的废物流。确保农业可持续发展所需的磷肥供应,需要采用循环经济方法从这些营养丰富的侧流中生产生物基肥料(bbf)。这不仅需要解决bbf的肥料价值,还需要解决经常被忽视的环境影响,这些影响肯定不仅受到bbf组成的影响,还受到土壤性质的影响。本研究旨在评估bbf促进的磷损失,这取决于它们的性质和它们所施用的土壤的性质,在3周的孵育后使用降雨模拟。为此,在芬兰(FI, pH 5.7)、德国(DE, pH 7.4)和西班牙(ES, pH 8.1)的土壤上施用了11个bbf和三重过磷酸酯(TSP)。bbf涵盖了广泛的原材料(植物、粪便、动物副产品、污水污泥)和生产技术(厌氧消化和堆肥、发酵和蒸馏、各种热处理和沉淀)。渗滤水中溶解活性磷(DRP)和钼酸盐-非活性磷(MU-P)的浓度因土壤性质和磷源的不同而有较大差异。提取易溶磷组分的土壤磷试验比提取难溶磷组分的土壤磷试验更能预测渗透水中的DRP浓度。土壤中磷含量最高的是与TSP混合的低磷滞留率DE土壤,尤其是DRP。在酸性和钙质土壤中,TSP、消化和堆肥的猪浆和矿物/沉淀bbf导致最大的DRP动员。在所有土壤中,含三钙/羟基磷灰石的有机BBFs和灰基BBFs的磷动员最少。bbf的造粒有效地减少了形态相似的bbf间的磷损失,同时也提高了对磷的处理和利用。因此,与可溶性无机磷肥相比,BBFs提供了一种减少磷损失的手段;然而,最大限度地减少磷损失需要了解土壤和BBF特性。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting of energy and emissions for the cement sector: a comprehensive review and scenario-based assessment 水泥行业能源和排放预测:全面审查和基于情景的评估
IF 7.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100298
Sobit Sapkota , Jooyoung Park , Jun-Ki Choi
The cement industry is a primary driver of the environmental footprint of the built environment, representing the most carbon-intensive component of construction material supply chains. Their energy and emissions trajectories directly shape the sustainability of buildings and urban infrastructure. However, forecasting these trajectories remains challenging due to limited data, technological transitions, and policy uncertainties. This study develops an integrated framework that combines a systematic review of forecasting methods with a comparative evaluation of the Grey Model (GM(1,1)) and the Markov-Chain Grey Model (MCGM). Using the cement sector of a rapidly developing economy as a case study, we embed forecasts within alternative scenarios, business-as-usual, efficiency improvement, and decline to assess future pathways of energy use and CO2 emissions. Results show that MCGM significantly improves forecasting accuracy relative to GM in this data-constrained and volatile industrial context and enables robust scenario analysis. Scenario outcomes highlight the risk of rising energy demand and emissions that could undermine sustainability targets in the construction sector, while efficiency pathways demonstrate alignment with international climate and development benchmarks. Beyond this case, the framework underscores the value of Grey–Markov forecasting as a transferable decision-support tool for evaluating the long-term environmental impacts of construction-related industries, supporting policymakers and sector stakeholders in achieving low-carbon development.
水泥行业是建筑环境环境足迹的主要驱动因素,代表了建筑材料供应链中碳密度最高的组成部分。它们的能源和排放轨迹直接影响着建筑物和城市基础设施的可持续性。然而,由于数据有限、技术转型和政策不确定性,预测这些轨迹仍然具有挑战性。本研究开发了一个综合框架,将预测方法的系统回顾与灰色模型(GM(1,1))和马尔可夫链灰色模型(MCGM)的比较评价相结合。我们以一个快速发展经济体的水泥行业为例,将预测嵌入到替代方案、常规业务、效率改进和衰退中,以评估未来的能源使用和二氧化碳排放途径。结果表明,在这种数据受限且易变的工业背景下,MCGM显著提高了相对于GM的预测精度,并实现了稳健的情景分析。情景结果强调了能源需求和排放不断上升的风险,这可能会破坏建筑行业的可持续发展目标,而效率途径则显示出与国际气候和发展基准的一致性。除此之外,该框架还强调了灰色-马尔可夫预测作为一种可转移的决策支持工具的价值,可用于评估建筑相关行业的长期环境影响,支持政策制定者和部门利益相关者实现低碳发展。
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引用次数: 0
Increased flood frequency altered carbon fluxes via modifying plant and soil properties in a riparian grassland 增加的洪水频率通过改变河岸草地的植物和土壤性质改变了碳通量
IF 7.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100292
Yabo Zhao , Yixin Guan , Cheng Zong , Petra Marschner , Robert Baxter , Bo Wang , Changlin Zou , Qiaoqi Sun
Riparian ecosystems are hotspots for carbon dioxide and methane emissions, contributing significantly to global carbon budgets and ecosystem sustainability. Under global warming, increasing flood frequency is causing substantial changes in riparian plant-soil systems, with consequent shifts in their carbon dynamics. However, little is known about the effects of altered flood frequencies on such riparian plant-soil-carbon flux interactions. In this study we aimed to address this knowledge gap by using a combination of remotely sensed imagery and field-based monitoring approaches. Field campaigns for plant, soil and gaseous samplings were initially conducted in the minimally flooded period and again resumed in the annually flooded period. Results showed that the study area transitioned from an annually flooded period (1984–2006) to a minimally flooded period (2007–2018) and then back to an annual flooded period once again (2019–2023). Increased flood frequency altered plant composition and diversity, shifting the community towards annual species that are better adapted to flood disturbance. Plant total carbon increased from 38.2 % to 44.0 %, whilst soil total nitrogen decreased from 0.18 % to 0.05 %. These shifts increased ecosystem respiration by 85 %, but not soil respiration, indicating autotrophic respiration drove the net rise. While methane production showed minimal response to flood frequency, a pronounced methane emission pulse (a 30-fold increase) was observed during active inundation. Our findings reveal flood frequency changes drive riparian carbon dynamics through synergistic vegetation-soil feedbacks, critically advancing the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate-amplified hydrological extremes. These findings provide valuable insights for flood management, ecosystem sustainability, and climate adaptation strategies.
河岸生态系统是二氧化碳和甲烷排放的热点,对全球碳预算和生态系统的可持续性做出了重大贡献。在全球变暖的背景下,洪水频率的增加正在引起河岸植物-土壤系统的实质性变化,从而导致其碳动态的变化。然而,人们对洪水频率变化对河岸植物-土壤-碳通量相互作用的影响知之甚少。在本研究中,我们旨在通过结合使用遥感图像和基于现场的监测方法来解决这一知识差距。最初在最低淹水期进行了植物、土壤和气体取样的实地活动,并在每年淹水期间再次恢复。结果表明,研究区从年淹期(1984-2006)过渡到最小淹期(2007-2018),然后再次回到年淹期(2019-2023)。洪水频率的增加改变了植物的组成和多样性,使群落向更能适应洪水干扰的一年生物种转移。植物总碳从38.2%增加到44.0%,土壤全氮从0.18%下降到0.05%。这些变化增加了85%的生态系统呼吸,但没有增加土壤呼吸,表明自养呼吸推动了净上升。虽然甲烷产量对洪水频率的响应最小,但在活跃淹没期间观察到明显的甲烷排放脉冲(增加30倍)。我们的研究结果表明,洪水频率的变化通过植被-土壤的协同反馈驱动河岸碳动态,极大地促进了对生态系统对气候放大水文极端事件的响应的理解。这些发现为洪水管理、生态系统可持续性和气候适应战略提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Global fruit production: environmental footprints, regional variability, and sustainability hotspots 全球水果生产:环境足迹、区域差异和可持续性热点
IF 7.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100295
Lu Wang , Shiyu Cao , Yi Yang
Fruits are vital for healthy diets, yet their environmental impacts on a global scale are still not well understood. Our study fills this knowledge gap by systematically reviewing life-cycle analyses of results from 113 life-cycle assessment (LCA) studies covering 15 major fruit species across six key environmental impact categories. Results show substantial variation in yields and environmental impacts across species, regions, and production systems, driven by climate, soil conditions, and management practices. High-yielding fruits such as pineapple and apple (0.10 and 0.15 kg CO2e/kg, respectively) generally release fewer greenhouse gases than low-yielding crops like avocado and berry (0.48 and 0.44 kg CO2e/kg, respectively). Environmental footprints vary widely across countries—for example, apple carbon footprints range from 0.04 to 3.01 kg CO2e/kg. Production-weighted global averages indicate a carbon footprint of 0.31 kg CO2e/kg, acidification of 3.48 g SO2e/kg, eutrophication of 2.23 g PO4e/kg, blue water use of 0.13 m3/kg, land use of 0.49 m2·a/kg, and human toxicity of 0.09 kg 1,4-DBe/kg. However, some impact categories like carbon footprint have been studied more frequently than others, with data gaps remaining particularly significant for the toxicity and eutrophication impacts of fruits such as avocado, cherry, and plum. By synthesizing results across fruit types, regions, and multiple impacts, our study reveals opportunities for targeted interventions and best-practice transfer to improve sustainability across the global fruit sector.
水果对健康饮食至关重要,但它们在全球范围内对环境的影响仍未得到很好的了解。我们的研究通过系统地回顾113项生命周期评估(LCA)研究的生命周期分析结果,填补了这一知识空白,这些研究涵盖了6个关键环境影响类别的15种主要水果。结果表明,受气候、土壤条件和管理实践的驱动,不同物种、地区和生产系统的产量和环境影响存在显著差异。高产水果如菠萝和苹果(分别为0.10和0.15千克二氧化碳当量/千克)通常比低产作物如鳄梨和浆果(分别为0.48和0.44千克二氧化碳当量/千克)释放更少的温室气体。不同国家的环境足迹差异很大,例如,苹果的碳足迹从0.04到3.01千克二氧化碳当量/千克不等。生产加权全球平均值表明,碳足迹为0.31 kg CO2e/kg,酸化为3.48 g SO2e/kg,富营养化为2.23 g PO4e/kg,蓝水使用量为0.13 m3/kg,土地使用量为0.49 m2·a/kg,人类毒性为0.09 kg 1,4- dbe /kg。然而,像碳足迹这样的影响类别的研究比其他类别更频繁,在牛油果、樱桃和李子等水果的毒性和富营养化影响方面,数据缺口仍然特别大。通过综合水果类型、地区和多重影响的结果,我们的研究揭示了有针对性的干预措施和最佳实践转移的机会,以提高全球水果行业的可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
Is carbon dioxide removal in the Arctic region really feasible? 在北极地区去除二氧化碳真的可行吗?
IF 7.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100289
Walter Leal Filho , Johannes M. Luetz , Maria Alzira Pimenta Dinis , Julian David Hunt , Gustavo J. Nagy
The Arctic region, warming at nearly four times the global average rate, is both an important carbon sink and a potential source of greenhouse gas emissions, especially due to thawing permafrost. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is increasingly recognised as a necessary measure to support global efforts to reduce emissions. This article examines whether, and under what conditions, large-scale CDR deployment in the Arctic is practically feasible. It also discusses the challenges associated with it. We synthesise peer-reviewed evidence on the performance of key CDR approaches relevant to high-latitude environments, including nature-based solutions (NbS), e.g. peatland restoration, blue carbon protection and afforestation, as well as enhanced rock weathering (ERW), ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Across these approaches, the feasibility is constrained by permafrost dynamics, hydrology, ecological sensitivity, energy availability, monitoring and verification, and governance. Whereas some CDR methods offer potential climate benefits, most are characterised by considerable uncertainty and context-dependent trade-offs. None currently demonstrates unequivocal feasibility at scale under Arctic conditions. Beyond these technical and ecological constraints, we identify four clusters of socio-political barriers that further complicate Arctic CDR: governance fragmentation, geopolitical tensions, inadequate regulatory mechanisms, and uneven global deployment. A comparative assessment suggests that peatland restoration and blue carbon protection are the most immediately actionable options, whereas DACCS and OAE would require substantial new infrastructure and energy investment. The study concludes by outlining targeted policy and research priorities to address existing technological, ecological, and governance challenges, and to situate Arctic CDR within broader mitigation strategies without risking over-reliance or mitigation deterrence. The novelty of this paper lies in its analysis of the multiple variables that influence the viability of CDR. Overall, Arctic CDR appears technically possible but remains highly constrained, with its feasibility contingent on meeting stringent operational conditions, robust governance, and continued emissions reductions elsewhere.
北极地区的变暖速度几乎是全球平均速度的四倍,它既是一个重要的碳汇,也是一个潜在的温室气体排放源,尤其是由于永久冻土的融化。二氧化碳去除(CDR)越来越被认为是支持全球减排努力的必要措施。本文考察了在北极大规模部署CDR是否可行,以及在什么条件下可行。它还讨论了与之相关的挑战。我们综合了与高纬度环境相关的关键CDR方法的性能的同行评审证据,包括基于自然的解决方案(NbS),例如泥炭地恢复,蓝碳保护和造林,以及增强岩石风化(ERW),海洋碱度增强(OAE)和直接空气碳捕获和储存(DACCS)。在这些方法中,可行性受到冻土动态、水文、生态敏感性、能源可用性、监测和验证以及治理的限制。尽管一些CDR方法具有潜在的气候效益,但大多数方法的特点是具有相当大的不确定性和依赖于环境的权衡。目前还没有一项技术在北极条件下具有明确的规模可行性。除了这些技术和生态限制外,我们还确定了使北极CDR进一步复杂化的四类社会政治障碍:治理碎片化、地缘政治紧张、监管机制不足和全球部署不均衡。一项比较评估表明,泥炭地恢复和蓝碳保护是最直接可行的选择,而DACCS和OAE则需要大量新的基础设施和能源投资。该研究最后概述了有针对性的政策和研究重点,以解决现有的技术、生态和治理挑战,并将北极CDR置于更广泛的减缓战略中,而不会冒过度依赖或减缓威慑的风险。本文的新颖之处在于分析了影响CDR可行性的多个变量。总的来说,北极CDR在技术上是可行的,但仍然受到高度限制,其可行性取决于是否满足严格的运营条件、强有力的治理和其他地区的持续减排。
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引用次数: 0
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Resources Environment and Sustainability
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