Os especialistas e o público

Abstract

The international financial crisis, originated in the United States in 2007, was not anticipated by most scholars and policymakers. The Brexit and the vic- tory of Donald Trump in the US elections also surprised the majority of opinion makers. These events raise important issues, namely the actual forecasting capacity of experts. According to some authors, the spectre of populism is haunting the Western world. On the other hand, elitism, a kind of populism turned upside down, seems to gain a new life. Somehow, faith in humankind is scarce these days. There is a new coming of the views of the masses’ ignorance,  irresponsibility and irrationality. Furthermore, today the masses have a wide-ranging participation in pu- blic discussion through social media, without medi- ation. In this article, standing on the views of several authors on the relation between experts and the public, we explore the following questions: (1) In a democratic society, what is the contribution of experts to improve the methods and the setting of public discussion and, on the other hand, to the poli- tical decision-making processes? (2) in which conditions can experts’ forecasts be more accurate than the public emotions and intuitions?