A spatio-temporal analysis of changing trends in rainfall patter: A case study of Kutch District

Abstract

Changing trends captivate millions of analytical minds. It grabs much when the impact on human lives and properties is involved. The utmost concern is changing weather patterns, which led to a worse impact on the amount and distribution of the precipitation. Essentially, the challenge in several nations is to reach the whole population with adequate water per day. Even a country like India, which has thousands of rivers, streams, lakes, ponds, etc. unable to reach the whole population, as it depends on the uneven event, the Monsoon for its >80% annual rain during monsoon months (June-September). The Nation’s westernmost district, Kutch, which holds the title for the largest area-wise district in India, has been bearing from changing trends in rainfall for a long time. The rainfall distribution within the district is uneven and has experienced contrasting extreme events like drought and flood within consecutive years. The present study attempts to analyse the Spatio-temporal rainfall pattern for 58 years from 1961 to 2018 for the Kutch district using the IMD4 long-term daily gridded (High Spatial Resolution, 0.25° x 0.25°) rainfall dataset. In addition, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope method were performed to detect the trends and the magnitude of change over the studied period, respectively. The results indicate high rainfall variability during monsoon months in the north and northwest, while relatively moderate and low in the south and west parts of the district, respectively, and show an upward trend in monsoon rainfall at a 5% significance level in all the Taluka of the Kutch district.