Inflation expectations surveys: a review of some survey design choices and their implications

Abstract

Abstract Inflation expectations are today keenly monitored by both the private sector and policy makers. Expectations matter, but whose expectations matter and how should this unobservable be measured? Answering these questions involves a number of choices that should be transparent and explicit. In this paper, we focus on these choices with respect to the South African inflation expectations data collected by the Bureau for Economic Research, but the discussion has broader international relevance. Firstly, there is a surprising level of heterogeneity in the design of inflation expectations surveys across countries, so there is room to learn from each of these experiences in pursuit of best practices. Being willing to detail the strengths and weaknesses of a particular approach is valuable as it will enable us to choose the appropriate proxy for each application and to interpret the results with insight. Secondly, the inflation expectations survey data of the Bureau for Economic Research has some particular strengths that may enable researchers to explore questions of international relevance, that comparable surveys have not allowed.