Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2268296
Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher, Naser Yenus Nuru
AbstractThis paper estimates the output cost of fighting inflation—the sacrifice ratio—for the South African economy using quarterly data spanning the period 1998:1–2019:3. To compute the sacrifice ratio, the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model developed by Cecchetti and Rich (Citation2001) based on Cecchetti (Citation1994) is employed. Our findings show us a small sacrifice ratio, which lies within the range 0.00002–0.231 percent with an average of 0.031 percent, indicating a low level of output to be sacrificed while fighting inflation. Hence, the reserve bank is recommended to sustain an inflation rate within the target range and reap the benefits of a predictable and stable price path, as restrictive monetary policy has only a transitory effect on real variables like output.Keywords: inflation targetingoutputsacrifice ratioSouth Africastructural VAR modelJEL CLASSIFICATION: E32E52 Additional informationFundingUnited Nations Uiversity World Institute for Development Economics Research.
{"title":"Structural estimates of the South African sacrifice ratio","authors":"Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher, Naser Yenus Nuru","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2268296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2268296","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractThis paper estimates the output cost of fighting inflation—the sacrifice ratio—for the South African economy using quarterly data spanning the period 1998:1–2019:3. To compute the sacrifice ratio, the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model developed by Cecchetti and Rich (Citation2001) based on Cecchetti (Citation1994) is employed. Our findings show us a small sacrifice ratio, which lies within the range 0.00002–0.231 percent with an average of 0.031 percent, indicating a low level of output to be sacrificed while fighting inflation. Hence, the reserve bank is recommended to sustain an inflation rate within the target range and reap the benefits of a predictable and stable price path, as restrictive monetary policy has only a transitory effect on real variables like output.Keywords: inflation targetingoutputsacrifice ratioSouth Africastructural VAR modelJEL CLASSIFICATION: E32E52 Additional informationFundingUnited Nations Uiversity World Institute for Development Economics Research.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136034479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2256480
Maryam Heidarian, Mohammad Sharif Karimi, Ali Falahati, Babak Naysary
AbstractEconomic shocks and structural budget imbalances, when combined with ongoing uncertainty, can lead to fiscal stress in governments. This fiscal stress, along with the resulting volatility in the financing of local governments, can worsen their ability to meet short-term and long-term financial commitments and increase their reliance on the central government. Consequently, the effects of this stress, whether positive or negative, are closely tied to the actions and responses of both central and local governments. This highlights the crucial need for policymakers in central and local governments to respond accurately and promptly, through constant monitoring and assessment of fiscal stress indices. This study aims to illustrate the fiscal situation in the 31 provinces of Iran by calculating the local fiscal stress index based on fiscal and budgetary variables specific to each province. Furthermore, it seeks to estimate the threshold and spatial effects of this index on employment during the period of 2005–2017 using the panel smooth transition regression method. The findings reveal that initially, financial stress has an immediate and positive impact on employment. However, once the threshold of financial stress is crossed, and the subsequent pressures accumulate, the ability to control this imbalance diminishes, resulting in a decline in employment. Additionally, the ability or inability of local governments to manage income and expenses not only affects the economic indicators of the region but also spills over to neighbouring regions, leading to capital outflow and workforce migration, which are two major contributing factors to economic growth.Keywords: Fiscal stressemploymentregional growthlocal governmentsJEL CLASSIFICATION: D8C34N2E23 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
{"title":"Threshold effects of regional fiscal stress index on employment","authors":"Maryam Heidarian, Mohammad Sharif Karimi, Ali Falahati, Babak Naysary","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2256480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2256480","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractEconomic shocks and structural budget imbalances, when combined with ongoing uncertainty, can lead to fiscal stress in governments. This fiscal stress, along with the resulting volatility in the financing of local governments, can worsen their ability to meet short-term and long-term financial commitments and increase their reliance on the central government. Consequently, the effects of this stress, whether positive or negative, are closely tied to the actions and responses of both central and local governments. This highlights the crucial need for policymakers in central and local governments to respond accurately and promptly, through constant monitoring and assessment of fiscal stress indices. This study aims to illustrate the fiscal situation in the 31 provinces of Iran by calculating the local fiscal stress index based on fiscal and budgetary variables specific to each province. Furthermore, it seeks to estimate the threshold and spatial effects of this index on employment during the period of 2005–2017 using the panel smooth transition regression method. The findings reveal that initially, financial stress has an immediate and positive impact on employment. However, once the threshold of financial stress is crossed, and the subsequent pressures accumulate, the ability to control this imbalance diminishes, resulting in a decline in employment. Additionally, the ability or inability of local governments to manage income and expenses not only affects the economic indicators of the region but also spills over to neighbouring regions, leading to capital outflow and workforce migration, which are two major contributing factors to economic growth.Keywords: Fiscal stressemploymentregional growthlocal governmentsJEL CLASSIFICATION: D8C34N2E23 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2264518
Aijaz Ahmad Bhat, Javaid Iqbal Khan, Sajad Ahmad Bhat, Javed Ahmad Bhat
AbstractUsing a legal or de jure measure of central bank independence, the present study attempts to examine the impact of central bank independence (CBI) on the inflation in case of Indian economy over the period, 1991–1992 to 2018–2019. To ascertain the possible dependence of association on the institutional quality proxied by level of financial development, we incorporated a non-linear logistic smooth transition framework with ratio of private credit to GDP as an appropriate transition variable. We found a statistically significant regime dependency with respect to the impact of CBI on inflation. In both the short-run and long run, increase in value of CBI is found to increase inflation when the level of financial development is below threshold value, however, beyond this threshold, any increase in CBI would decrease it. The impact of other control variables like GDP growth, oil price inflation & lagged inflation is found to be positive and statistically significant. However, currency appreciation is found to lower inflation. Our findings signify an appreciable role for the degree of financial development in the transmission of central bank’s monetary policy stances to maintain low inflation.Keywords: InflationCentral Bank IndependenceFinancial DevelopmentLSTRIndia Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Dynamic inconsistency is a situation in which a policy maker’s preferences and decisions change over time that the decisions made became inconsistent in future.2 For instance, the pre-requisite condition of nations to join the European Economic Community (EEC) was low inflation.3 Seigniorage refers to the profit realized by the government authorities by printing the money. It is the difference between costs of printing the currency and its face value.4 By credit channel transmission mechanism, the policies of central bank affect the amount and volume of credit in the economy.5 For detailed discussion regarding each criterion see Jasmine et al. (Citation2019).6 The coding regarding disaggregated variables and additional details regarding the components and sub-components is not reported to save the space and can be made available on request.7 The Tables 1(A) and 2(A) are given in the Appendix-I.8 If γ→∞, LSTR model changes to a two-regime switching regression model with an abrupt transition and if γ=0 and F(st;γ,c)≡0, LSTR model trims down to a linear model.10 The values of grid search for γ were set between 0 & 100 for increments of 1 and that of c was estimated for all the ranked values of transition variable st.11 However, it may be noted that γ is not sacle-free and as such it is standardised by dividing it with the sample standard deviation of transition variable st denoted as σŝ.12 The selection of the analysis period is purely decided according to data availability regarding various policy documents or other components and subcomponents of CBI index and other variables.13 The less sensi
摘要本研究采用法律或法律性衡量中央银行独立性，试图考察1991-1992年至2018-2019年期间印度经济中中央银行独立性(CBI)对通货膨胀的影响。为了确定关联对金融发展水平所代表的制度质量的可能依赖，我们采用了一个非线性逻辑平滑过渡框架，将私人信贷与GDP的比率作为适当的过渡变量。我们发现CBI对通货膨胀的影响具有统计上显著的制度依赖性。无论从短期还是长期来看，当金融发展水平低于阈值时，CBI值的增加都会增加通货膨胀，而超过该阈值时，CBI值的增加会降低通货膨胀。其他控制变量如GDP增长，油价通胀和滞后通胀的影响被发现是积极的和统计显著。然而，货币升值被发现可以降低通货膨胀。我们的研究结果表明，金融发展程度在传导央行维持低通胀的货币政策立场方面发挥了可观的作用。关键词:通货膨胀中央银行独立性金融发展印度披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1动态不一致是指政策制定者的偏好和决策随着时间的推移而改变，从而导致未来的决策不一致例如，各国加入欧洲经济共同体的先决条件是低通货膨胀铸币税是指政府当局通过印刷货币获得的利润。它是印刷货币的成本与其面值之间的差额通过信贷渠道传导机制，中央银行的政策影响着经济中的信贷总量有关每个标准的详细讨论，请参见Jasmine et al. (Citation2019)关于分解变量的编码和关于组件和子组件的额外细节没有报告，以节省空间，可以根据要求提供表1(A)和表2(A)载于附录i .810 .当γ→∞时，LSTR模型变为具有突变的双区切换回归模型;当γ=0且F(st;γ，c)≡0时，LSTR模型收敛为线性模型网格搜索γ的值被设置在0和100之间，增量为1，并且对过渡变量st.的所有排序值估计c的值。然而，可能会注意到γ不是无刻度的，因此通过将其除以过渡变量st的样本标准差(表示为σŝ.12)来进行标准化分析期的选择纯粹是根据各种政策文件或CBI指数的其他成分和子成分以及其他变量的数据可用性来决定的最终消费品对汇率变化的敏感性较低，主要是因为进口商品或可贸易商品必须经过定价的分销链。比如从进口价格到生产者价格，最后到消费者价格。在这个适当的过程中，产生了显著的本地增值，并通过零售连锁店的不同市场结构(Bhat & & Bhat, Citation2022)。
{"title":"Central Bank Independence and Inflation in India: The Role of Financial Development","authors":"Aijaz Ahmad Bhat, Javaid Iqbal Khan, Sajad Ahmad Bhat, Javed Ahmad Bhat","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2264518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2264518","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractUsing a legal or de jure measure of central bank independence, the present study attempts to examine the impact of central bank independence (CBI) on the inflation in case of Indian economy over the period, 1991–1992 to 2018–2019. To ascertain the possible dependence of association on the institutional quality proxied by level of financial development, we incorporated a non-linear logistic smooth transition framework with ratio of private credit to GDP as an appropriate transition variable. We found a statistically significant regime dependency with respect to the impact of CBI on inflation. In both the short-run and long run, increase in value of CBI is found to increase inflation when the level of financial development is below threshold value, however, beyond this threshold, any increase in CBI would decrease it. The impact of other control variables like GDP growth, oil price inflation & lagged inflation is found to be positive and statistically significant. However, currency appreciation is found to lower inflation. Our findings signify an appreciable role for the degree of financial development in the transmission of central bank’s monetary policy stances to maintain low inflation.Keywords: InflationCentral Bank IndependenceFinancial DevelopmentLSTRIndia Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Dynamic inconsistency is a situation in which a policy maker’s preferences and decisions change over time that the decisions made became inconsistent in future.2 For instance, the pre-requisite condition of nations to join the European Economic Community (EEC) was low inflation.3 Seigniorage refers to the profit realized by the government authorities by printing the money. It is the difference between costs of printing the currency and its face value.4 By credit channel transmission mechanism, the policies of central bank affect the amount and volume of credit in the economy.5 For detailed discussion regarding each criterion see Jasmine et al. (Citation2019).6 The coding regarding disaggregated variables and additional details regarding the components and sub-components is not reported to save the space and can be made available on request.7 The Tables 1(A) and 2(A) are given in the Appendix-I.8 If γ→∞, LSTR model changes to a two-regime switching regression model with an abrupt transition and if γ=0 and F(st;γ,c)≡0, LSTR model trims down to a linear model.10 The values of grid search for γ were set between 0 & 100 for increments of 1 and that of c was estimated for all the ranked values of transition variable st.11 However, it may be noted that γ is not sacle-free and as such it is standardised by dividing it with the sample standard deviation of transition variable st denoted as σŝ.12 The selection of the analysis period is purely decided according to data availability regarding various policy documents or other components and subcomponents of CBI index and other variables.13 The less sensi","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135901217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2252184
J. Rudolph, D. J. Bradfield
Abstract This paper responds to the recent (2022) change to Regulation 28 of the South African Pension Funds Act which now permits an increased allocation (raised from 30% to 45%) in foreign investments. Our primary aim is to establish a strategic (long-term) benchmark weight for the allocation to foreign assets. Our secondary aim is to assist in building intuition on potential tactical (shorter-term) foreign allocation decisions. To ensure rigour in our study, we use a novel dataset dating back to the 1930s and we utilise methodologies in recent academic literature in the mean-variance framework. Our optimisation evidence supports a strategic foreign benchmark allocation of 39% (with 61% allocated to local asset classes). We highlight that this strategic foreign benchmark of 39% (probably for the first time) enables managers to potentially take on meaningful tactical overweight foreign positions. We establish that this strategic foreign benchmark would have reduced the risk (standard deviation of returns) of the local-only optimal portfolio significantly from 10% p.a. down to 8.7% p.a. over the 92 year period analysed, whilst increasing the return by an additional 1.1% p.a. over the local-only portfolio. Lastly, we provide guidance on tactical foreign allocation decisions based on four potential local economic regimes.
{"title":"Benchmarking an allocation to the foreign Sub-portfolio from a South African perspective","authors":"J. Rudolph, D. J. Bradfield","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2252184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2252184","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper responds to the recent (2022) change to Regulation 28 of the South African Pension Funds Act which now permits an increased allocation (raised from 30% to 45%) in foreign investments. Our primary aim is to establish a strategic (long-term) benchmark weight for the allocation to foreign assets. Our secondary aim is to assist in building intuition on potential tactical (shorter-term) foreign allocation decisions. To ensure rigour in our study, we use a novel dataset dating back to the 1930s and we utilise methodologies in recent academic literature in the mean-variance framework. Our optimisation evidence supports a strategic foreign benchmark allocation of 39% (with 61% allocated to local asset classes). We highlight that this strategic foreign benchmark of 39% (probably for the first time) enables managers to potentially take on meaningful tactical overweight foreign positions. We establish that this strategic foreign benchmark would have reduced the risk (standard deviation of returns) of the local-only optimal portfolio significantly from 10% p.a. down to 8.7% p.a. over the 92 year period analysed, whilst increasing the return by an additional 1.1% p.a. over the local-only portfolio. Lastly, we provide guidance on tactical foreign allocation decisions based on four potential local economic regimes.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-06DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2254500
C. Coetzee, E. Kleynhans
Abstract This article investigates the impact of Government’s response measures to new COVID-19 cases. This is proxied by a stringency index of 50 countries from April 2020 to March 2022. Our World in Data COVID-19 dataset was utilised employing several panel econometrics methods. This article fills a gap in empirical research by employing a range of econometric methods over an extended period and countries. The article provides the basis for the formulation and implementation of government response measures or policies to other major public health events that may occur in the future. The research found a positive association between Government’s response measures and new cases initially and in the long term and a significant short-term error correction component. This indicates an incremental and repeatable implementation approach, proposing a cyclical or lagged relationship where response measures reach a level of stringency after some time, then induce a decline in new cases. The timing, speed, and stringency of implementation of the government policy response measures are crucial in our understanding of the relationship or link between the government policy response measures and new COVID-19 cases.
{"title":"Assessment of the impact of government response measures on the spread of COVID-19: panel data evidence for 50 countries","authors":"C. Coetzee, E. Kleynhans","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2254500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2254500","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article investigates the impact of Government’s response measures to new COVID-19 cases. This is proxied by a stringency index of 50 countries from April 2020 to March 2022. Our World in Data COVID-19 dataset was utilised employing several panel econometrics methods. This article fills a gap in empirical research by employing a range of econometric methods over an extended period and countries. The article provides the basis for the formulation and implementation of government response measures or policies to other major public health events that may occur in the future. The research found a positive association between Government’s response measures and new cases initially and in the long term and a significant short-term error correction component. This indicates an incremental and repeatable implementation approach, proposing a cyclical or lagged relationship where response measures reach a level of stringency after some time, then induce a decline in new cases. The timing, speed, and stringency of implementation of the government policy response measures are crucial in our understanding of the relationship or link between the government policy response measures and new COVID-19 cases.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42871675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-04DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2252185
Anton van Wyk, Anmar Pretorius, D. Blaauw
Abstract In literature, most studies on mergers focus purely on competition-related aspects; additional conditions that can apply are labelled non-competition goals or public interest considerations (PICs). The imposition of these conditions is garnering more attention from the competition authorities as a means to assist the struggling economy in South Africa. This paper reports the impact that various independent variables can have on the probability of certain public interest considerations being imposed on merger cases in South Africa with the use of a quantitative logit regression model. The study sample consists of 221 mergers between 2010 and 2019, and only includes cases with PICs as conditions to merge, based on all small, intermediate, and large mergers collected from Competition Commission and Tribunal newsletters, case files and company websites, as well as the Institute for Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances. This research makes use of descriptive statistics and regression analysis from this unique database to analyse the data. The results indicate that for South Africa, the competition authorities focus on employment, supplier development fund programmes and Black economic empowerment conditions when considering which PIC to enforce on merger cases. The article contributes to the literature on competition policy and economics by adding to the minimal research already conducted and enhances our understanding of mergers with non-competition goals and the impact of these considerations in the South African merger framework.
{"title":"Evaluating public interest considerations in South African merger enforcement: an overview of the last decade","authors":"Anton van Wyk, Anmar Pretorius, D. Blaauw","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2252185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2252185","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In literature, most studies on mergers focus purely on competition-related aspects; additional conditions that can apply are labelled non-competition goals or public interest considerations (PICs). The imposition of these conditions is garnering more attention from the competition authorities as a means to assist the struggling economy in South Africa. This paper reports the impact that various independent variables can have on the probability of certain public interest considerations being imposed on merger cases in South Africa with the use of a quantitative logit regression model. The study sample consists of 221 mergers between 2010 and 2019, and only includes cases with PICs as conditions to merge, based on all small, intermediate, and large mergers collected from Competition Commission and Tribunal newsletters, case files and company websites, as well as the Institute for Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances. This research makes use of descriptive statistics and regression analysis from this unique database to analyse the data. The results indicate that for South Africa, the competition authorities focus on employment, supplier development fund programmes and Black economic empowerment conditions when considering which PIC to enforce on merger cases. The article contributes to the literature on competition policy and economics by adding to the minimal research already conducted and enhances our understanding of mergers with non-competition goals and the impact of these considerations in the South African merger framework.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46348588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-31DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2250566
Guivis Zeufack Nkemgha, Kone Ibouanga, Kouladoum Jean-Claude
Abstract Despite the abundant literature on the consequences of terrorism, little is known about the relationship between terrorism and international trade, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The purpose of this article is to fill this literature gap by assessing how terrorism affects international trade using a panel data of 24 countries over the period 2000–2020. This article applies different techniques such as ordinary least squares, fixed effects, Quantile Regression and the System Generalised Method of Moments. The results show that terrorism is an important determinant of international trade in SSA. Across a number of specifications, the results reveal that terrorism is also guilty of trade delay. Furthermore, the results show that governance is a potential channel through which terrorism transits to exert its harmful effect on international trade in SSA countries.
{"title":"International trade impediments in Africa: is terrorism also in the dock?","authors":"Guivis Zeufack Nkemgha, Kone Ibouanga, Kouladoum Jean-Claude","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2250566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2250566","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite the abundant literature on the consequences of terrorism, little is known about the relationship between terrorism and international trade, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The purpose of this article is to fill this literature gap by assessing how terrorism affects international trade using a panel data of 24 countries over the period 2000–2020. This article applies different techniques such as ordinary least squares, fixed effects, Quantile Regression and the System Generalised Method of Moments. The results show that terrorism is an important determinant of international trade in SSA. Across a number of specifications, the results reveal that terrorism is also guilty of trade delay. Furthermore, the results show that governance is a potential channel through which terrorism transits to exert its harmful effect on international trade in SSA countries.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47148725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-28DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2216879
Aeggarchat Sirisankanan
Abstract The observed association between household income and children’s education cannot be interpreted as causal in the existence of potential income endogeneity. The non-natural factors often infringe on the orthogonality condition, even if they satisfy the relevance condition. Utilising a farm household survey, saline soil, and rainfall data from Thailand, this paper exploits natural experiments using actual natural factors as an instrumental variable to find valid instruments and check the robustness of the results using many estimators. The results show that, among the nine instrumental variables, rainfall amount and rainfall deviation are valid instruments for establishing the causal effect of income on a child’s education.
{"title":"The causal effect of family income on child investment in Thailand: an instrumental variable approach using natural “natural experiments”","authors":"Aeggarchat Sirisankanan","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2216879","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2216879","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The observed association between household income and children’s education cannot be interpreted as causal in the existence of potential income endogeneity. The non-natural factors often infringe on the orthogonality condition, even if they satisfy the relevance condition. Utilising a farm household survey, saline soil, and rainfall data from Thailand, this paper exploits natural experiments using actual natural factors as an instrumental variable to find valid instruments and check the robustness of the results using many estimators. The results show that, among the nine instrumental variables, rainfall amount and rainfall deviation are valid instruments for establishing the causal effect of income on a child’s education.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"47 1","pages":"223 - 243"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43226881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-11DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2220079
J. Afolabi
Abstract The theoretical and empirical links between optimum government size and economic growth have been widely debated in the economic literature, with the Barro-Armey-Rahn-Scully (BARS) curve positing a nonlinear nexus between the two variables. However, empirical evidence on the nonlinearity of the government size-economic growth nexus and the growth-maximizing government size, with specific focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, is scarce. This paper, therefore, tests the validity of the BARS curve and investigates the optimum government size needed to avert growth reversal across Sub-Saharan African income groups. The panel quantile regression model was adopted to estimate relevant data covering 2000–2020 obtained from reputable international databases. The results showed mixed findings but validated the postulation of the BARS curve in low-income and lower-middle income countries. The results are sensitive to the choice of government size indicator and vary across quantiles and income groups. In sum, the results showed that government size must be barred to a certain threshold to avert growth reversal. Therefore, fiscal policy instruments should be used circumspectly to ensure sustainable economic growth across Sub-Saharan African countries, irrespective of their income group.
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Pub Date : 2023-06-05DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2218054
Manuchehr Irandoust
Abstract With an emphasis on groups like women who have an elastic labour supply, this study examines the link between unemployment and labour market participation in Arab countries from 1991 to 2021. The bootstrap panel Granger causality method is used to determine the causal direction, considering cross-sectional dependency, slope heterogeneity, and structural breaks. The results provide mixed evidence for the invariance, discouraged worker, and additional worker hypotheses, which qualify earlier findings. Of the 17 countries, only 4 are in favour of the unemployment invariance theory. Policies that raise the growth path of capital, productivity, and increase the effective working-age population may influence the unemployment rate.
{"title":"The nexus between female unemployment and labor supply: evidence from Arab countries","authors":"Manuchehr Irandoust","doi":"10.1080/03796205.2023.2218054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2023.2218054","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract With an emphasis on groups like women who have an elastic labour supply, this study examines the link between unemployment and labour market participation in Arab countries from 1991 to 2021. The bootstrap panel Granger causality method is used to determine the causal direction, considering cross-sectional dependency, slope heterogeneity, and structural breaks. The results provide mixed evidence for the invariance, discouraged worker, and additional worker hypotheses, which qualify earlier findings. Of the 17 countries, only 4 are in favour of the unemployment invariance theory. Policies that raise the growth path of capital, productivity, and increase the effective working-age population may influence the unemployment rate.","PeriodicalId":55873,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics","volume":"47 1","pages":"262 - 279"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47570903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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