The reputational cost of military aggression: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

Large-scale military aggression is argued to damage the international image of the aggressor and mobilize global public opinion against it. Previous cross-country research also finds that negative views of the aggressor are usually limited to the government and do not extend to the citizens of the invading country. Our article provides micro-level evidence on attitude change toward Russia as a country, the Russian people, and the Russian government after its invasion of Ukraine. We use data from a survey conducted between the morning of 21 February 2022 (3 days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine) and the night of 28 February 2022 (5 days after the invasion) in the United States to evaluate how the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected attitudes toward the country, its people, and the government. We also conduct a subgroup analysis to explore the magnitude of attitude change across sociodemographic and political subgroups after the invasion. Our findings show fairly significant damage to the image of Russia as a country as well as the Russian government. However, the reputational damage of the Russian people is minimal. The results also suggest that Republican and religious subgroups had the largest attitude change on Russia and the Russian government.