{"title":"Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting","authors":"A. D. Mehr, M. Safari, Vahid Nourani","doi":"10.18400/tekderg.605453","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study presents developing procedures and verification of a new hybrid model, namely wavelet packet-genetic programming (WPGP) for short-term meteorological drought forecast. To this end, the multi-temporal standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) has been used as the drought quantifying parameter at two meteorological stations at Ankara province, Turkey. The new WPGP model comprises two main steps. In the first step, the wavelet packet, which is a generalization of the well-known wavelet transform, is used to decompose the SPEI series into deterministic and stochastic sub-signals. Then, classic genetic programming (GP) is applied to formulate the deterministic sub-signal considering its effective lags. To characterize the stochastic component, different theoretical probability distribution functions were assessed, and the best one was selected to integrate with the GP-evolved function. The efficiency of the new model was cross-validated with the first order autoregressive (AR1), GP, and random forest (RF) models developed as the benchmarks in the present study. The results showed that the WPGP is a robust model, superior to AR1 and RF, and significantly increases the predictive accuracy of the standalone GP model.","PeriodicalId":49442,"journal":{"name":"Teknik Dergi","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"17","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Teknik Dergi","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.605453","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
Abstract
This study presents developing procedures and verification of a new hybrid model, namely wavelet packet-genetic programming (WPGP) for short-term meteorological drought forecast. To this end, the multi-temporal standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) has been used as the drought quantifying parameter at two meteorological stations at Ankara province, Turkey. The new WPGP model comprises two main steps. In the first step, the wavelet packet, which is a generalization of the well-known wavelet transform, is used to decompose the SPEI series into deterministic and stochastic sub-signals. Then, classic genetic programming (GP) is applied to formulate the deterministic sub-signal considering its effective lags. To characterize the stochastic component, different theoretical probability distribution functions were assessed, and the best one was selected to integrate with the GP-evolved function. The efficiency of the new model was cross-validated with the first order autoregressive (AR1), GP, and random forest (RF) models developed as the benchmarks in the present study. The results showed that the WPGP is a robust model, superior to AR1 and RF, and significantly increases the predictive accuracy of the standalone GP model.
期刊介绍:
The scope of Teknik Dergi is naturally confined with the subjects falling in the area of civil engineering. However, the area of civil engineering has recently been significantly enlarged, even the definition of civil engineering has somewhat changed.
Half a century ago, engineering was simply defined as “the art of using and converting the natural resources for the benefit of the mankind”. Today, the same objective is expected to be realised (i) by complying with the desire and expectations of the people concerned and (ii) without wasting the resources and within the sustainability principles. This change has required an interaction between engineering and social and administrative sciences. Some subjects at the borderline between civil engineering and social and administrative sciences have consequently been included in the area of civil engineering.
Teknik Dergi defines its scope in line with this understanding. However, it requires the papers falling in the borderline to have a significant component of civil engineering.