Effectiveness of the emergency public activity restrictions on COVID-19 epidemiological parameter in East Java Province, Indonesia: An ecological study

D. Prasiska, A. Muhlis, H. Megatsari
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引用次数: 17

Abstract

Introduction: This study was aimed to analyze the effectiveness of the emergency activity restriction policy implementation to slow down the daily incidence and mortality of COVID-19 in the East Java Province of Indonesia. Methods: An ecological study design was used for this research as the data were acquired from the daily confirmed cases and mortality reports of COVID-19 in 29 regencies and 9 cities in East Java Province of Indonesia from June 14 to July 25, 2021. Interrupted time series using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used for the analysis. Results: The mean of COVID-19 daily incidence and mortality was increasing during the implementation of emergency public activity restriction. The result of the ARIMA interrupted time series reported that the implementation of emergency public activity restriction significantly (P < 0.05) affects the increase of COVID-19 daily incidence in 18 cities and daily mortality in 9 cities. Analysis on the provincial level showed that there was no reduction both in daily incidence and mortality during the implementation of emergency public activity restriction. Conclusion: The study reported that the implementation of emergency public activity restrictions was not beneficial in reducing COVID-19 daily incidence and mortality in the East Java Province of Indonesia during the 1st month of policy implementation.
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印度尼西亚东爪哇省紧急公共活动限制对COVID-19流行病学参数的有效性:一项生态学研究
引言:本研究旨在分析印度尼西亚东爪哇省实施紧急活动限制政策以减缓新冠肺炎每日发病率和死亡率的有效性。方法:采用生态学研究设计,从2021年6月14日至7月25日印度尼西亚东爪哇省29个县和9个城市的每日新冠肺炎确诊病例和死亡报告中获取数据。使用自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)的中断时间序列进行分析。结果:在实施紧急公共活动限制期间,新冠肺炎每日发病率和死亡率的平均值呈上升趋势。ARIMA中断时间序列的结果表明,实施紧急公共活动限制显著影响18个城市新冠肺炎日发病率和9个城市日死亡率的增加(P<0.05)。对省级层面的分析表明,在实施紧急公共活动限制期间,每日发病率和死亡率都没有下降。结论:研究报告称,在政策实施的第一个月内,紧急公共活动限制的实施对降低印度尼西亚东爪哇省新冠肺炎的每日发病率和死亡率没有好处。
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来源期刊
Asian Journal of Social Health and Behavior
Asian Journal of Social Health and Behavior Social Sciences-Health (social science)
CiteScore
8.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
18
审稿时长
17 weeks
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