An investigation of key precursors of megaproject crises

Abstract

PurposeDetecting precursory signals is critical to increasing the resilience of megaprojects to crises. This study aims to investigate key crisis precursors to better apprehend traces of megaproject crises and proactively respond to approaching crises, thereby increasing project resilience.Design/methodology/approachDrawing on the theory of weak signals, 25 potential precursors of megaproject crises are extracted. Using exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM), four models were tested to identify key crisis precursors based on a questionnaire survey of 168 megaproject participants in China. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was employed to examine the differences in participants’ perceptions of key crisis precursors.FindingsFour key crisis precursors were identified: Imbalance of Benefits and Costs, Irresponsible and Unqualified Key Participants, Regulatory Mechanisms Lacking Transparency and Flexibility, and Information Uncertainty and Asymmetry. Compared with senior executives, team members think that key crisis precursors related to regulatory mechanisms and key participants are more likely to trigger crises, which affects responsive actions toward detected crisis precursors. The findings help identify problems at an early stage and enable timely intervention to mitigate crises.Research limitations/implicationsDetection of key crisis precursors allows for proactive and targeted actions to mitigate crises. Megaproject development is affected by institutional mechanisms. The influence of institutions on the effectiveness of crisis management needs further investigation.Originality/valueLimited attention has been paid to recognizing precursors of megaproject crises. This study identifies four key crisis precursors by uncovering the interrelationships among potential precursors, which enables rapid adaptation to future crises.