Aerosynoptic conditions for the formation of winter thunderstorms on the example of the Minsk-2 airfield

Abstract

In the conditions of modern climate warming, there is an increase in the number of hazardous weather phenomena, including thunderstorm activity, not only in the warm, but also in the cold season. The article analyses the occurrence of winter thunderstorms (October – March) and their connections with aerosynoptic conditions are revealed on the example of the Minsk-2 airfield for the period from 1989 to 2020. The determination of these relationships is necessary to make a qualitative forecast of thunderstorms as one of the hazardous weather phenomena for aviation. It was found that for the formation of winter thunderstorms requires the arrival of warm (with an air temperature above 0 °C) and moist air mass from the south or southwest, associated with the displacement of intensively deepening North Atlantic or southern cyclones in the stage of a young cyclone; the passage of primary and secondary active cold fronts with speeds of more than 30 km/h, cold fronts with waves and occlusion fronts, which provide the rise of warm and moist air of the lower troposphere; the existence of convective instability in the atmosphere; the presence tongue of warm and humid air, which is replaced by a trough of cold, at the level of 850 mb; the presence of low-jet currents and positive vorticity at the level of 700 mb and level of 500 mb, indicating the rise of an air particle; the presence of powerful jet currents of the western quarter at the level of 300 mb, enhancing convective processes. The obtained results can be used to replenish the methodological base on the forecasting of hazardous convective phenomena in Belarus, and also as recommendations for the forecast of thunderstorms in the cold season in the operational work of weather forecasters.