Effect of climate change on heat waves in the South Sea of Iran

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to identify the heat waves of the South Sea of Iran and compare the conditions in the present and future. To reach this goal, the average daily temperature of 35 years has been used. Also, in order to predict future heat waves, the maximum temperature data of four models of the CMIP5 model series, according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, has been used for the period 2040-2074. In order to reverse the output of the climatic models, artificial neural networks were used to identify the thermal waves, and the Fumiaki index was used to determine the thermal waves. Using the programming in MATLAB software, the days when their temperature exceeded 2 standard deviations as a thermal wave were identified. The results of the research show that the short-term heat waves are more likely to occur. Heat waves in the base period have a significant but poorly developed trend, so that the frequency has increased in recent years. In the period from 2040 to 2074, the frequency of thermal waves has a significant decreasing trend, but usually with low coefficients. However, for some stations from 2040 to 2074, the frequency of predicted heat waves increased. Keywords: Climate change; Heat waves; RCP 8.5; Climate models; CMIP5   References Cox, P. M., Huntingford, C., & Williamson, M. S. 2018. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability. Nature, 553(7688), 319-322. Lhotka, O., Kyselý, J., & Farda, A. 2018. Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties. Theoretical and applied climatology, 131(3-4), 1043-1054. Gao, M., Yang, J., Wang, B., Zhou, S., Gong, D., & Kim, S. J. 2018. How are heat waves over Yangtze River valley associated with atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 51(11-12), 4421-4437. Zhao, L., Oppenheimer, M., Zhu, Q., Baldwin, J. W., Ebi, K. L., Bou-Zeid, E., ... & Liu, X. 2018. Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves. Environmental research letters, 13(3), 034003. Coquet, S., Labadie, M., Vivier-Darrigol, M., Liege, M., & Vandentorren, S. 2018. Early heat wave and heat stroke during distance running, April 2017, France. Revue d'Epidemiologie et de Sante Publique, 66, S341. Varghese, B. M., Barnett, A. G., Hansen, A. L., Bi, P., Nairn, J., Rowett, S., ... & Pisaniello, D. L. 2019. Characterising the impact of heatwaves on work-related injuries and illnesses in three Australian cities using a standard heatwave definition-Excess Heat Factor (EHF). Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology, 29(6), 821-830. Sherbakov, T., Malig, B., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Basu, R. 2018. Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009. Environmental research, 160, 83-90. Moriarty, P. and Honnery, D., 2015. Future cities in a warming world. Futures, 66(1), 45-53. Takada, M., Sotokawa, H., Ishimaru, Y., Imai, T., Ohira, M., Arai, H., ... & Matsuo, Y. 2017. U.S. Patent No. 9,664,452. Washington, DC: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Raghavendra, A., Dai, A., Milrad, S. M., & Cloutier-Bisbee, S. R. 2019. Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: future climate projections. Climate Dynamics, 52(1-2), 495-508. Geirinhas, J. L., Trigo, R. M., Libonati, R., Castro, L. C., Sousa, P. M., Coelho, C. A., ... & Monica de Avelar, F. M. 2019. Characterizing the atmospheric conditions during the 2010 heatwave in Rio de Janeiro marked by excessive mortality rates. Science of The Total Environment, 650, 796-808. Imada, Y., Shiogama, H., Takahashi, C., Watanabe, M., Mori, M., Kamae, Y., & Maeda, S. 2018. Climate change increased the likelihood of the 2016 heat extremes in Asia. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99(1), S97-S101.