Do mass layoffs affect voting behaviour? Evidence from the UK

IF 1.3 2区 管理学 Q3 INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS & LABOR British Journal of Industrial Relations Pub Date : 2023-05-07 DOI:10.1111/bjir.12749
Nils Braakmann, Wessel N. Vermeulen
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Abstract

How bad are mass layoffs politically? We study this question across both regional and individual-level datasets. Using a difference-in-difference framework with differential timing on constituency-level data for the UK, we find no evidence that mass layoff announcements negatively affect incumbents – either locally or nationally – in the General Elections 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019. Using individual data on party preferences, we demonstrate that our results are not an artefact of the UK majority voting system and associated tactical voting. We also find no evidence that the null results can be explained by increased outmigration of affected individuals or changes of candidates by political parties. We find evidence that economic expectations are not strongly affected by mass layoffs, which, although a surprising finding by itself, might help to explain the absence of an effect on political outcomes.

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大规模裁员会影响投票行为吗?来自英国的证据
大规模裁员在政治上有多糟糕?我们在区域和个人层面的数据集上研究这个问题。利用英国选区级数据的差异时间差异框架,我们发现在2010年、2015年、2017年和2019年的大选中,没有证据表明大规模裁员公告对现任者产生负面影响——无论是地方还是全国。使用政党偏好的个人数据,我们证明我们的结果不是英国多数投票制度和相关战术投票的人工产物。我们也没有发现证据表明无效结果可以用受影响个人的外迁增加或政党候选人的变化来解释。我们发现有证据表明,经济预期不会受到大规模裁员的强烈影响,尽管这本身就是一个令人惊讶的发现,但可能有助于解释对政治结果没有影响。
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来源期刊
British Journal of Industrial Relations
British Journal of Industrial Relations INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS & LABOR-
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
11.50%
发文量
58
期刊介绍: BJIR (British Journal of Industrial Relations) is an influential and authoritative journal which is essential reading for all academics and practitioners interested in work and employment relations. It is the highest ranked European journal in the Industrial Relations & Labour category of the Social Sciences Citation Index. BJIR aims to present the latest research on developments on employment and work from across the globe that appeal to an international readership. Contributions are drawn from all of the main social science disciplines, deal with a broad range of employment topics and express a range of viewpoints.
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