{"title":"Do mass layoffs affect voting behaviour? Evidence from the UK","authors":"Nils Braakmann, Wessel N. Vermeulen","doi":"10.1111/bjir.12749","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>How bad are mass layoffs politically? We study this question across both regional and individual-level datasets. Using a difference-in-difference framework with differential timing on constituency-level data for the UK, we find no evidence that mass layoff announcements negatively affect incumbents – either locally or nationally – in the General Elections 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019. Using individual data on party preferences, we demonstrate that our results are not an artefact of the UK majority voting system and associated tactical voting. We also find no evidence that the null results can be explained by increased outmigration of affected individuals or changes of candidates by political parties. We find evidence that economic expectations are not strongly affected by mass layoffs, which, although a surprising finding by itself, might help to explain the absence of an effect on political outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":47846,"journal":{"name":"British Journal of Industrial Relations","volume":"61 4","pages":"922-950"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/bjir.12749","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"British Journal of Industrial Relations","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjir.12749","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS & LABOR","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
How bad are mass layoffs politically? We study this question across both regional and individual-level datasets. Using a difference-in-difference framework with differential timing on constituency-level data for the UK, we find no evidence that mass layoff announcements negatively affect incumbents – either locally or nationally – in the General Elections 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019. Using individual data on party preferences, we demonstrate that our results are not an artefact of the UK majority voting system and associated tactical voting. We also find no evidence that the null results can be explained by increased outmigration of affected individuals or changes of candidates by political parties. We find evidence that economic expectations are not strongly affected by mass layoffs, which, although a surprising finding by itself, might help to explain the absence of an effect on political outcomes.
期刊介绍:
BJIR (British Journal of Industrial Relations) is an influential and authoritative journal which is essential reading for all academics and practitioners interested in work and employment relations. It is the highest ranked European journal in the Industrial Relations & Labour category of the Social Sciences Citation Index. BJIR aims to present the latest research on developments on employment and work from across the globe that appeal to an international readership. Contributions are drawn from all of the main social science disciplines, deal with a broad range of employment topics and express a range of viewpoints.