Climate suitability modeling for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae): current and future invasion risk analysis

IF 3 3区地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI:10.1007/s00484-023-02487-3

Geovani da Silva Santana, Beatriz Ronchi-Teles, Cícero Manoel dos Santos, Marcus Alvarenga Soares, Philipe Guilherme Corcino Souza, Fausto Henrique Vieira Araújo, Caio Victor Soares de Aguiar, Ricardo Siqueira da Silva

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Abstract

The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space–time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species.

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双翅目:绢蝗科气候适宜性模型:当前和未来入侵风险分析

加勒比果蝇，Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862)(双翅目:绢蝇科)，是中美洲和美国佛罗里达州具有重要经济意义的害虫。本研究在时间和空间尺度上探讨了气候变化对悬钩子时空分布的影响。CLIMEX软件被用来模拟当前的分布和气候变化。利用CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS)和MIROC-H (MR)两种全球气候模式(GCMs)在排放情景(SRES) A2和A1B下对2050年、2080年和2100年的未来分布进行了分析。结果表明，在所有研究情景中，悬刺的全球分布潜力较低。然而，直到本世纪末，南美洲、中美洲、非洲和大洋洲的热带地区被确定为悬索草的高气候适宜性。对悬钩子的气候适宜性区域的预测可以为制定植物检疫管理的预防策略提供有用的信息，避免因该物种的引入而产生的经济影响。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Biometeorology 地学-环境科学

CiteScore

6.40

自引率

9.40%

发文量

183

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： The Journal publishes original research papers, review articles and short communications on studies examining the interactions between living organisms and factors of the natural and artificial atmospheric environment. Living organisms extend from single cell organisms, to plants and animals, including humans. The atmospheric environment includes climate and weather, electromagnetic radiation, and chemical and biological pollutants. The journal embraces basic and applied research and practical aspects such as living conditions, agriculture, forestry, and health. The journal is published for the International Society of Biometeorology, and most membership categories include a subscription to the Journal.