{"title":"Carry Trade, Exchange Rates, and the Balance-of-Payments","authors":"Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho","doi":"10.1515/jgd-2021-0029","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper presents a partial equilibrium model that integrates interest rate arbitrage with the balance-of-payments constraint to determine the real exchange rate. The sequential logic is the following: (i) carry-trade determines the term premium, with the spot rate showing greater volatility than the forward rate, (ii) uncovered interest rate parity determines the spot rate based on the real exchange rate consistent with a financial constraint, defined as a stable ratio of foreign reserves to foreign debt; and (iii) the trade balance consistent with the financial constraint determines the long-run real exchange rate for a given ratio of domestic to foreign income.","PeriodicalId":38929,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Globalization and Development","volume":"12 1","pages":"103 - 116"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Globalization and Development","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2021-0029","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Abstract This paper presents a partial equilibrium model that integrates interest rate arbitrage with the balance-of-payments constraint to determine the real exchange rate. The sequential logic is the following: (i) carry-trade determines the term premium, with the spot rate showing greater volatility than the forward rate, (ii) uncovered interest rate parity determines the spot rate based on the real exchange rate consistent with a financial constraint, defined as a stable ratio of foreign reserves to foreign debt; and (iii) the trade balance consistent with the financial constraint determines the long-run real exchange rate for a given ratio of domestic to foreign income.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Globalization and Development (JGD) publishes academic research and policy analysis on globalization, development, and in particular the complex interactions between them. The journal is dedicated to stimulating a creative dialogue between theoretical advances and rigorous empirical studies to push forward the frontiers of development analysis. It also seeks to combine innovative academic insights with the in-depth knowledge of practitioners to address important policy issues. JGD encourages diverse perspectives on all aspects of development and globalization, and attempts to integrate the best development research from across different fields with contributions from scholars in developing and developed countries. Topics: -Economic development- Financial investments- Development Aid- Development policies- Growth models- Sovereign debt
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