Potencial productivo agrícola y modelación del cambio climático en la cuenca del Papaloapan

Abstract

The objective of this work was to make a proposal for potential land use and the projection of climate change scenarios in the Papaloapan basin, using the multi-criteria and multi-objective analysis technique to generate potential capabilities in the basin. From the greatest aptitude, the scenarios were generated using the methodology for Maximum Entropy. The hydrological region was delimited through cartographic material and climatic information was obtained from meteorological stations, geographic information and databases were collected from official secondary sources, the information was processed in the ArcGIS version 10.2.2 program, to obtain the geodatabases and geospatial matrices that served as cartographic input for the multi-criteria analysis. Based on the geospatial matrices and vector data, raster data were generated, which were used in the modeling with geo-statistical algorithms and potential zones were identified from a structured language. The result of the modeling regarding the suitability of the soil generated two classes with six levels of suitability: land for basic crops and for the cultivation of species of industrial importance and two climate change scenarios, current and future.