Resilience patterns of urban road networks under the worst-case localized disruptions.

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-18 DOI:10.1111/risa.14236
Chongyang Du, Min Ouyang, Hui Zhang, Bo Wang, Naiyu Wang
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Abstract

Recent events, including COVID-19, extreme floods, and explosion accidents, commonly induced localized closures and disruptions of urban road networks (URNs), resulting in significant impacts on human mobility and socio-economic activities. Existing studies on URN resilience to those events mainly took few cases for empirical studies, limiting our understanding on the URN resilience patterns across different cities. By conducting a large-scale nationwide resilience analysis of URNs in 363 cities in mainland China, this study attempts to uncover the resilience patterns of URNs against the worst-case single (SLDs) and multiple localized disruptions (MLDs). Results show that the distance from the worst-case SLD to the city center would be less than 5 km in 62.3% cities, as opposed to more than 15 km in 14.3% cities. Moreover, the average road network resilience of cities in western China could be 7% and 13% smaller than that of the eastern cities under the worst-case SLDs and MLDs, respectively. This inequality in the worst-case resilience is partly attributable to variations in urban socio-economic, infrastructure-related, and topographic factors. These findings could inspire nationwide pre-disaster mitigation strategies to cope with localized disruptions and help transfer insights for mitigation strategies against disruptive events across cities.

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城市道路网络在最坏情况下局部中断的弹性模式。
最近发生的事件,包括新冠肺炎、极端洪水和爆炸事故,通常导致城市道路网(URNs)局部封闭和中断,对人类流动和社会经济活动产生重大影响。现有的关于URN对这些事件的恢复力的研究主要采用很少的案例进行实证研究,这限制了我们对不同城市URN恢复力模式的理解。通过对中国大陆363个城市的URNs进行大规模的全国复原力分析,本研究试图揭示URNs对最坏情况单点(SLD)和多点局部破坏(MLD)的复原力模式。结果显示,62.3%的城市从最坏的SLD到市中心的距离小于5公里,而14.3%的城市超过15公里。此外,在最坏的SLD和MLD下,中国西部城市的平均路网弹性可能分别比东部城市低7%和13%。这种最坏情况下恢复力的不平等部分归因于城市社会经济、基础设施相关和地形因素的变化。这些发现可能会启发全国范围内的灾前缓解策略,以应对局部破坏,并有助于在城市间传播针对破坏性事件的缓解策略的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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