Assessment of the FIO-CPS v2.0 in predicting 2-meter air temperature over China

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2023.101391

Qiuying Fu , Zhenya Song , Zhongkai Bo , Ying Bao , Chan Joo Jang , Yajuan Song

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Abstract

The climate prediction system is an essential tool for predicting climatological state and variability. Systematic evaluation of the output is critical for assessing the prediction performance and making improvement. In this study, we evaluate the prediction capability of the First Institute of Oceanography-Climate Prediction System version 2.0 (FIO-CPS v2.0), a short-term climate prediction system, on the 2-meter air temperature over China using five criteria, namely prediction score (PS), prediction consistency (PC), correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), and distance between indices of simulation and observation (DISO). The results showed that FIO-CPS v2.0 has higher accuracy in summer, and its performance varies with different lead times depending on the evaluation criteria used. Higher overall prediction skill was mostly found in the northeastern region during July and September, and the southeastern coastal region during June–September. Our findings provide insights into the prediction ability of the FIO-CPS v2.0 on air temperature and may help to facilitate its development.

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FIO-CPS v2.0对中国2米气温预报的评价

气候预测系统是预测气候状态和变化的重要工具。对输出的系统评估对于评估预测性能和进行改进至关重要。在本研究中，我们使用预测得分（PS）、预测一致性（PC）、相关系数（CC）、均方根误差（RMSE）、，以及模拟和观测指标之间的距离（DISO）。结果表明，FIO-CPS v2.0在夏季具有更高的准确性，其性能随交付周期的不同而变化，具体取决于所使用的评估标准。较高的总体预测技能主要出现在7月和9月的东北地区，以及6月至9月的东南沿海地区。我们的发现为FIO-CPS v2.0对气温的预测能力提供了见解，并可能有助于促进其发展。

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来源期刊

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

5.90%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans is an international journal for research related to the dynamical and physical processes governing atmospheres, oceans and climate. Authors are invited to submit articles, short contributions or scholarly reviews in the following areas: •Dynamic meteorology •Physical oceanography •Geophysical fluid dynamics •Climate variability and climate change •Atmosphere-ocean-biosphere-cryosphere interactions •Prediction and predictability •Scale interactions Papers of theoretical, computational, experimental and observational investigations are invited, particularly those that explore the fundamental nature - or bring together the interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary aspects - of dynamical and physical processes at all scales. Papers that explore air-sea interactions and the coupling between atmospheres, oceans, and other components of the climate system are particularly welcome.