Global logistics intermodal network simulation modeling by incremental assignment and corridor development simulations in Myanmar

Abstract

This study develops a more stable model to simulate the global container cargo flows in the intermodal network with link capacities by improving the existing model with incremental assignment and parallel computing. The developed model is validated by comparing it with the observed port cargo throughputs and sensitivity analyses. Subsequently, the model is applied to the ASEAN region and China to examine the impact of logistics corridor development policies. Specifically, the scenarios improving borders between ASEAN and China confirm that improvements in Myanmar borders would shift cargo from other ASEAN countries, while improvements across ASEAN would increase the region-wide land transit cargo. The scenarios improving borders in the East–West Corridor (EWC) of the Greater Mekong Subregion confirm that the EWC is in competitive and complementary relationships with Thilawa port. Finally, the scenarios adding liner services suggest stimulating the demand by improving Myanmar's domestic logistics network than encouraging border crossings.