{"title":"Expectations, structural breaks and the recent surge in inflation","authors":"Daniel Gründler","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111394","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I use a switching-point VAR to detect if the transmission of inflation expectations<span> to CPI inflation has changed in the post-Covid period. I find evidence that, although inflation expectation shocks affected CPI inflation somewhat stronger after 2020, the differences to the previous regime are too small to be a driving force behind the recent incline in inflation.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"233 ","pages":"Article 111394"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economics Letters","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176523004202","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
I use a switching-point VAR to detect if the transmission of inflation expectations to CPI inflation has changed in the post-Covid period. I find evidence that, although inflation expectation shocks affected CPI inflation somewhat stronger after 2020, the differences to the previous regime are too small to be a driving force behind the recent incline in inflation.
期刊介绍：
Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.
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