Crash severity analysis of single-vehicle rollover crashes in Namibia: A mixed logit approach

Abstract

Road traffic crashes are a leading cause of serious injuries and fatalities globally and place unnecessary developmental and economic burdens on low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) as they account for the vast majority of the world's road related deaths. This is typically due to both the increased frequency of dangerous crash types and the increased severity of said crash types. Rollover crashes while quite rare are a particularly dangerous crash type among other various crash types. In the case of Namibia, rollover crashes reportedly accounted for 34% of both road related injuries and fatalities in Namibia for 2020. When compared to high-income countries the issue of rollover crash severity in Namibia and like sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries becomes apparent. Therefore, it crucial to understand the contributing factors and their associated effects on rollover crash severities in these countries. This study aims to investigate and identify the significant factors influencing crash severities and their associated impact magnitudes on single-vehicle rollover crashes in Namibia by adopting a mixed logit with heterogeneity in means and variances approach to account for unobserved heterogeneity in the data. Although it is not without its limitations the dataset used in this study includes single-vehicles rollover crash instances from 2014 to 2016 within Namibia and is able to provide unique details for the crash observations including various driver, environmental, roadway, and vehicle characteristics. Results from this study indicate several factors including weekends, open roadways, and minibuses to be significantly increasing the crash severity of single-vehicle rollover crashes. Additionally, results provide a basis for which researchers and policy makers can understand rollover crashes in Namibia and adopt an appropriate approach to address this issue, such as, Safe Systems. Such an approach would include but not be limited to the implementation of roadside features, educational campaigns, speed enforcement, and vehicle standards policy.