Trend analysis of long-term meteorological data of a growing metropolitan city in the era of global climate change

Abstract

It is crucial to look at the spatiotemporal meteorological dynamics from the perspective of climatic variability, especially in nations where prevalent rain-fed agri-farming occurs. The degree of the components' variability or volatility varies depending on the locale. This study examined the temperature and rainfall patterns in the Guwahati city of Assam state of India. To examine the patterns, this study employed observed historical weather data from 1970 to 2019. The concerns were analysed using tools like the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope predictor, and linear regression. Temperature showed an upward trend for yearly and seasonal periods and was statistically significant at 95%. According to the findings, overall annual seasonal rainfall is increasing over time. In particular, there is a considerable drop in monsoon and winter precipitation, while both pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months witnessed an increasing precipitation trend, particularly over the past 50 years. A thorough review of the data for 50 years demonstrates that yearly temperature minimums and maximums have increased while the Guwahati city seasonal temperature minimums and maximums have also increased. The ARIMA findings indicated that annual average precipitation, maximum, minimum and average temperatures would quickly climb in coming years. The annual average values for precipitation, maximum, minimum and average temperatures would be 3988.5 mm, 35.75 °C, 23.33 °C and 28.40 °C, respectively by the year 2029. Researchers studying climate change, policymakers, and decision-makers will use the study's findings as a guide.