U.S. cobalt scenario analysis to mid-century: Import dependency or marketable commodity?

Abstract

Cobalt is an element in high demand for products manufactured and used in the United States. However, a detailed estimation of future cobalt needs under different conditions for specific product groups is still lacking. In the present work, we build upon the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios such that they address cobalt demand, use, recycling, and loss in the United States from 2020 to 2050. We find that cobalt demand depends strongly on energy storage (highly dependent on electric vehicles) and superalloys (highly dependent on international air travel). If the United States were to substitute cobalt in batteries and superalloys with alternative materials and, at the same time, set up efficient battery recycling programs, it could eventually recover more cobalt than it needs, allowing potential cobalt sales to other countries.