Accuracy assessment of energy projections for China by Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency

IF 5.8 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-07-05 DOI:10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100111
Hui Shen, Xin Wen, Evelina Trutnevyte
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Abstract

Energy projections are of great importance to energy policies but have consistently shown noticeable and repeated errors, and thus require accuracy assessment for improvement. International Energy Outlook (IEO) of the US Energy Information Administration and World Energy Outlook (WEO) of the International Energy Agency publish widely used energy projections, whose accuracy for China – the largest energy consuming economy and carbon dioxide emitter – has been rarely explored. This study investigates accuracy of China's reference energy projections in the annual reports of IEO and WEO from 2004 to 2019. Results show that most projections in IEO and WEO underestimated China's total energy consumption, particularly over longer projection horizons. The use of coal, natural gas and renewable energy tended to be underestimated, and nuclear energy was overestimated. The errors of industry and transport sectors were comparable and higher than for the other sectors. WEO showed substantially better accuracy than IEO in projections of total energy consumption, primary energy resources (except for nuclear energy) and end-use sectors. Projection horizon, errors in projected population's size, oil price and gross domestic product per capita were four leading factors related to the projection errors and hence they require particular attention in future modeling. For policy makers, this study shows that, if IEO and WEO projections are used to guide the policy making, China needs more aggressive policies in order to achieve the carbon neutrality goal.

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能源情报署和国际能源署对中国能源预测的准确性评估
能源预测对能源政策非常重要,但一直显示出明显和反复的错误,因此需要对其准确性进行评估以加以改进。美国能源情报署(eia)的《国际能源展望》(IEO)和国际能源署(iea)的《世界能源展望》(WEO)发布了被广泛使用的能源预测,但这些预测对中国这个最大的能源消耗经济体和二氧化碳排放国的准确性却鲜有探讨。本研究考察了2004 - 2019年IEO和WEO年度报告中中国参考能源预测的准确性。结果表明,IEO和WEO的大多数预测都低估了中国的能源消费总量,特别是在较长的预测范围内。煤炭、天然气和可再生能源的使用往往被低估,而核能则被高估。工业和运输部门的误差与其他部门相当,且高于其他部门。《世界经济展望》在预测总能源消耗、初级能源(核能除外)和最终用途部门方面比《环境展望》准确得多。预测范围、预测人口规模的误差、石油价格和人均国内生产总值是与预测误差有关的四个主要因素,因此在今后建模时需要特别注意。对于政策制定者来说,本研究表明,如果使用IEO和WEO的预测来指导政策制定,中国需要更积极的政策来实现碳中和目标。
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来源期刊
Energy and climate change
Energy and climate change Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
7.90
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0.00%
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0
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