A COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness model using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model

Abstract

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in the world, including Malaysia and Thailand. This study identifies the trend of the COVID-19 outbreak before and after the vaccination campaign by using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Vaccinated (SEIRV) models. Moreover, we predict the daily reported death and recovery cases using the SEIR model and Holt's linear trend method and then evaluate their performance. The data used in this study is real data from Malaysia and Thailand. The SEIRV model provides a comprehensive view of the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccinations in curbing the COVID-19 outbreak. This research reveals that the SEIR model outperforms Holt's linear trend method in predicting daily reported cases.