Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a major public health challenge, significantly complicating infection prevention and treatment. This study employs machine learning and neural network techniques to classify multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacterial (MDR-GNB) infections using electronic health records from 624 patients at Thatphanom Crown Prince Hospital in Thailand. We compared several algorithms, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), with the MLP model exhibiting the highest accuracy and specificity. Performance was further enhanced by integrating feature selection methods such as Sequential Forward Selection (SFS), Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation (RFE-CV), and SelectKBest with data augmentation techniques, including ADASYN and SMOTE variants. Utilizing SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided valuable insights into the most influential predictors for MDR-GNB. Notably, the MLP model achieved an AUC of 0.70, surpassing prior studies and highlighting its potential to advance clinical decision-making in managing MDR-GNB infections.
{"title":"A machine learning and neural network approach for classifying multidrug-resistant bacterial infections","authors":"Preeda Mengsiri , Ratchadaporn Ungcharoen , Sethavidh Gertphol","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100388","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100388","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a major public health challenge, significantly complicating infection prevention and treatment. This study employs machine learning and neural network techniques to classify multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacterial (MDR-GNB) infections using electronic health records from 624 patients at Thatphanom Crown Prince Hospital in Thailand. We compared several algorithms, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), with the MLP model exhibiting the highest accuracy and specificity. Performance was further enhanced by integrating feature selection methods such as Sequential Forward Selection (SFS), Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation (RFE-CV), and SelectKBest with data augmentation techniques, including ADASYN and SMOTE variants. Utilizing SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided valuable insights into the most influential predictors for MDR-GNB. Notably, the MLP model achieved an AUC of 0.70, surpassing prior studies and highlighting its potential to advance clinical decision-making in managing MDR-GNB infections.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100388"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-22DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2025.100386
Mahmudul Bari Hridoy, Angela Peace
Malaria continues to be a significant global health challenge, particularly in tropical regions. Resistance to key antimalarial drugs is spreading, complicating treatment efforts. While progress toward eradication has been slow, the development and introduction of novel malaria vaccines offer hope for reducing the disease burden in endemic areas. To address these challenges, we develop an extended Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR) age-structured model incorporating malaria vaccination for children, drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains, and interactions between human hosts and mosquitoes. Our research evaluates how malaria vaccination coverage influences disease prevalence and transmission dynamics. We derive both strains’ basic, intervention, and invasion reproduction numbers and conduct sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters affecting infection prevalence. Our findings reveal that model outcomes are primarily influenced by scale factors that reduce transmission and natural recovery rates for the resistant strain, as well as by drug treatment and vaccination efficacies and mosquito death rates. Numerical simulations indicate that while treatment reduces the malaria disease burden, it also increases the proportion of drug-resistant cases. Conversely, higher vaccination efficacy correlates with lower infection cases for both strains. These results suggest that a synergistic approach involving vaccination and treatment could effectively decrease the overall proportion of the infected population.
{"title":"An exploration of the interplay between treatment and vaccination in an Age-Structured Malaria Model using non-linear ordinary differential equations","authors":"Mahmudul Bari Hridoy, Angela Peace","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100386","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100386","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Malaria continues to be a significant global health challenge, particularly in tropical regions. Resistance to key antimalarial drugs is spreading, complicating treatment efforts. While progress toward eradication has been slow, the development and introduction of novel malaria vaccines offer hope for reducing the disease burden in endemic areas. To address these challenges, we develop an extended Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR) age-structured model incorporating malaria vaccination for children, drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains, and interactions between human hosts and mosquitoes. Our research evaluates how malaria vaccination coverage influences disease prevalence and transmission dynamics. We derive both strains’ basic, intervention, and invasion reproduction numbers and conduct sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters affecting infection prevalence. Our findings reveal that model outcomes are primarily influenced by scale factors that reduce transmission and natural recovery rates for the resistant strain, as well as by drug treatment and vaccination efficacies and mosquito death rates. Numerical simulations indicate that while treatment reduces the malaria disease burden, it also increases the proportion of drug-resistant cases. Conversely, higher vaccination efficacy correlates with lower infection cases for both strains. These results suggest that a synergistic approach involving vaccination and treatment could effectively decrease the overall proportion of the infected population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100386"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-17DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2025.100385
Aydin Teymourifar , Onur Kaya , Gurkan Ozturk
This study focuses on a real-world healthcare system with coexisting public and private hospitals with distinct characteristics. While public hospitals have lower costs, they also suffer from long waiting times and diminishing patients’ perceived quality of care. Conversely, despite their higher fees, private hospitals offer shorter waiting times, leading to a more favorable perception of quality. A balanced healthcare system could provide societal benefits. Pricing strategies greatly influence a patient’s hospital selection. For instance, reduced fees in private hospitals attract more patients, consequently reducing overcrowding in public facilities and elevating the overall quality of services provided. This study aims to develop pricing models to foster a balanced and socially advantageous healthcare system. This system determines private hospital pricing through contract mechanisms with the government. Thus, we delve into the ramifications of various contract models between the government and private hospitals on social utility. Our findings underscore the communal advantages of contract mechanisms. Furthermore, we generalize the proposed models to apply to similar systems.
{"title":"A data-driven approach to pricing models for balanced public–private healthcare systems","authors":"Aydin Teymourifar , Onur Kaya , Gurkan Ozturk","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100385","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100385","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study focuses on a real-world healthcare system with coexisting public and private hospitals with distinct characteristics. While public hospitals have lower costs, they also suffer from long waiting times and diminishing patients’ perceived quality of care. Conversely, despite their higher fees, private hospitals offer shorter waiting times, leading to a more favorable perception of quality. A balanced healthcare system could provide societal benefits. Pricing strategies greatly influence a patient’s hospital selection. For instance, reduced fees in private hospitals attract more patients, consequently reducing overcrowding in public facilities and elevating the overall quality of services provided. This study aims to develop pricing models to foster a balanced and socially advantageous healthcare system. This system determines private hospital pricing through contract mechanisms with the government. Thus, we delve into the ramifications of various contract models between the government and private hospitals on social utility. Our findings underscore the communal advantages of contract mechanisms. Furthermore, we generalize the proposed models to apply to similar systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100385"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-15DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2025.100387
Zhouyang Lou , Zachary Hass , Nan Kong
Reducing hospital readmissions for older adults discharged to a skilled nursing facility (SNF) is important to the Unites States (U.S.) both from financial and care quality perspectives. To identify potential risk factors, researchers have used data from claims, national surveys, and administrative databases to train models that predict hospital readmissions that occur within 30 days of discharge. Machine learning techniques hold promise for this binary classification task. However, analysis pipelines are underdeveloped in data balancing, feature selection, and model interpretability. In this paper, we utilized individual resident-level data from the Long-Term Care Minimum Data Set (MDS) collected from SNFs in a midwestern U.S. state (n = 93,058). We further triangulated this data with publicly available facility quality and staffing data from the Nursing Home Compares tool of the Medicare.gov and facility neighborhood data from the National Neighborhood Data Archive. We compared several machine learning models, data balancing techniques, and feature selection methods, for the prediction task. We found that XGBoost, with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Edited Nearest Neighbor (SMOTE-ENN) to balance the data, and hierarchical clustering based on spearman correlation to select the features that produces the best prediction performance. We then used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to identify features that contribute most to the performance and used partial dependence plots to examine curvilinear and moderating relationships between features and the risk of 30-day rehospitalization.
{"title":"An interpretable machine learning study for developing a binary classifier for predicting rehospitalization from skilled nursing facilities","authors":"Zhouyang Lou , Zachary Hass , Nan Kong","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100387","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100387","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reducing hospital readmissions for older adults discharged to a skilled nursing facility (SNF) is important to the Unites States (U.S.) both from financial and care quality perspectives. To identify potential risk factors, researchers have used data from claims, national surveys, and administrative databases to train models that predict hospital readmissions that occur within 30 days of discharge. Machine learning techniques hold promise for this binary classification task. However, analysis pipelines are underdeveloped in data balancing, feature selection, and model interpretability. In this paper, we utilized individual resident-level data from the Long-Term Care Minimum Data Set (MDS) collected from SNFs in a midwestern U.S. state (n = 93,058). We further triangulated this data with publicly available facility quality and staffing data from the Nursing Home Compares tool of the Medicare.gov and facility neighborhood data from the National Neighborhood Data Archive. We compared several machine learning models, data balancing techniques, and feature selection methods, for the prediction task. We found that XGBoost, with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Edited Nearest Neighbor (SMOTE-ENN) to balance the data, and hierarchical clustering based on spearman correlation to select the features that produces the best prediction performance. We then used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to identify features that contribute most to the performance and used partial dependence plots to examine curvilinear and moderating relationships between features and the risk of 30-day rehospitalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100387"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-31DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2025.100384
Madhusree Kuanr, Puspanjali Mohapatra
This study proposes a health recommender system to analyze health risk and disease prediction by identifying the most responsible disease-causing factors using a hybrid Genetic–Harris Hawk optimization multi-objective feature selection approach. The proposed recommender system uses the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT) automated machine learning model to recommend the most suitable machine learning prediction model with the best classifier in terms of classification accuracy for a disease with the selected features. It also recommends the top three disease-causing features for a particular disease that can be utilized to analyze a person’s health risk. The proposed system has also been compared with the competing prediction approaches using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Singular Vector Decomposition (SVD), and Autoencoders. We show that the proposed system outperforms competing approaches in terms of classification accuracy.
{"title":"A recommender system with multi-objective hybrid Harris Hawk optimization for feature selection and disease diagnosis","authors":"Madhusree Kuanr, Puspanjali Mohapatra","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes a health recommender system to analyze health risk and disease prediction by identifying the most responsible disease-causing factors using a hybrid Genetic–Harris Hawk optimization multi-objective feature selection approach. The proposed recommender system uses the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT) automated machine learning model to recommend the most suitable machine learning prediction model with the best classifier in terms of classification accuracy for a disease with the selected features. It also recommends the top three disease-causing features for a particular disease that can be utilized to analyze a person’s health risk. The proposed system has also been compared with the competing prediction approaches using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Singular Vector Decomposition (SVD), and Autoencoders. We show that the proposed system outperforms competing approaches in terms of classification accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100384"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143172046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100381
J.E. Camacho-Cogollo , Cristhian Felipe Patiño Zambrano , Christian Lochmuller , Claudia C. Colmenares-Mejia , Nicolas Rozo , Mario A. Isaza-Ruget , Paul Rodriguez , Andrés García
The therapeutic goal for diabetes mellitus is to maintain normal blood glucose levels, but in some cases, hypoglycemia may occur as a consequence of treatment. Identifying patients with hypoglycemia is critical to preventing adverse events and mortality. However, hypoglycemic events are often not accurately documented in electronic health records (EHRs). This study presents a retrospective analysis of the EHRs of patients with diabetes mellitus. We hypothesize that text analytics and machine learning can identify possible hypoglycemic incidents from unstructured physician notes in electronic health records. Our analysis applies these techniques using the Python programming language as a tool. It also considers words that describe symptoms related to hypoglycemia. The analysis involves searching physicians' notes for keywords and applying supervised classification methods to 146,542 records. Natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning algorithms are used to identify possible hypoglycemic events and related symptoms in physicians’ notes. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model produces the best classification performance among all the models tested in this study, with an obtained accuracy of 0.87. We show that the NLP approach can effectively identify and automate the text-based detection process of potential hypoglycemic events, and can subsequently be used to make informed decisions about potential patient risks.
{"title":"An application of natural language processing for hypoglycemic event identification in patients with diabetes mellitus","authors":"J.E. Camacho-Cogollo , Cristhian Felipe Patiño Zambrano , Christian Lochmuller , Claudia C. Colmenares-Mejia , Nicolas Rozo , Mario A. Isaza-Ruget , Paul Rodriguez , Andrés García","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2024.100381","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.health.2024.100381","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The therapeutic goal for diabetes mellitus is to maintain normal blood glucose levels, but in some cases, hypoglycemia may occur as a consequence of treatment. Identifying patients with hypoglycemia is critical to preventing adverse events and mortality. However, hypoglycemic events are often not accurately documented in electronic health records (EHRs). This study presents a retrospective analysis of the EHRs of patients with diabetes mellitus. We hypothesize that text analytics and machine learning can identify possible hypoglycemic incidents from unstructured physician notes in electronic health records. Our analysis applies these techniques using the Python programming language as a tool. It also considers words that describe symptoms related to hypoglycemia. The analysis involves searching physicians' notes for keywords and applying supervised classification methods to 146,542 records. Natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning algorithms are used to identify possible hypoglycemic events and related symptoms in physicians’ notes. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model produces the best classification performance among all the models tested in this study, with an obtained accuracy of 0.87. We show that the NLP approach can effectively identify and automate the text-based detection process of potential hypoglycemic events, and can subsequently be used to make informed decisions about potential patient risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100381"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143172047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100378
Robert M. Siepmann , Giulia Baldini , Cynthia S. Schmidt , Daniel Truhn , Gustav Anton Müller-Franzes , Amin Dada , Jens Kleesiek , Felix Nensa , René Hosch
The administrative burden of manually extracting clinical information from discharge letters is a common challenge in healthcare. This study aims to explore the use of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically Generative Pretrained Transformer 4 (GPT-4) by OpenAI, for automated extraction of diagnoses, medications, and allergies from discharge letters. Data for this study were sourced from two healthcare institutions in Germany, comprising discharge letters for ten patients from each institution. The first experiment is conducted using a standardized prompt for information extraction. However, challenges were encountered, and the prompt was fine-tuned in a second experiment to improve the results. We further tested whether open-source LLMs can achieve similar results. In the first experiment, primary diagnoses were identified with 85% accuracy and secondary diagnoses with 55.8%. Medications and allergies were extracted with 85.9% and 100% accuracy, respectively. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes for the identified diagnoses achieved an accuracy of 85% for primary diagnoses and 60.7% for secondary diagnoses. Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) codes were identified with an accuracy of 78.8%. On the other hand, open-source LLMs did not provide similar levels of accuracy and could not consistently fill the template. With prompt fine-tuning in the second experiment, the primary diagnoses, secondary diagnoses, and medications could be predicted with 95%, 88.9%, and 92.2% accuracy, respectively. GPT-4 shows excellent potential for automated extraction of crucial diagnostic and medication information from discharge letters, presumably lowering the administrative burden for healthcare professionals and improving patient outcomes.
{"title":"An automated information extraction model for unstructured discharge letters using large language models and GPT-4","authors":"Robert M. Siepmann , Giulia Baldini , Cynthia S. Schmidt , Daniel Truhn , Gustav Anton Müller-Franzes , Amin Dada , Jens Kleesiek , Felix Nensa , René Hosch","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2024.100378","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.health.2024.100378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The administrative burden of manually extracting clinical information from discharge letters is a common challenge in healthcare. This study aims to explore the use of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically Generative Pretrained Transformer 4 (GPT-4) by OpenAI, for automated extraction of diagnoses, medications, and allergies from discharge letters. Data for this study were sourced from two healthcare institutions in Germany, comprising discharge letters for ten patients from each institution. The first experiment is conducted using a standardized prompt for information extraction. However, challenges were encountered, and the prompt was fine-tuned in a second experiment to improve the results. We further tested whether open-source LLMs can achieve similar results. In the first experiment, primary diagnoses were identified with 85% accuracy and secondary diagnoses with 55.8%. Medications and allergies were extracted with 85.9% and 100% accuracy, respectively. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes for the identified diagnoses achieved an accuracy of 85% for primary diagnoses and 60.7% for secondary diagnoses. Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) codes were identified with an accuracy of 78.8%. On the other hand, open-source LLMs did not provide similar levels of accuracy and could not consistently fill the template. With prompt fine-tuning in the second experiment, the primary diagnoses, secondary diagnoses, and medications could be predicted with 95%, 88.9%, and 92.2% accuracy, respectively. GPT-4 shows excellent potential for automated extraction of crucial diagnostic and medication information from discharge letters, presumably lowering the administrative burden for healthcare professionals and improving patient outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100378"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143172049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study proposes an optimal control model for COVID-19 spread, incorporating a logistic recruitment rate. The observations show the disease-free equilibrium exists when the population-existing threshold exceeds 1. The stability of equilibrium is determined by the basic reproduction number . This implies that equilibrium is stable when is less than or equal to 1, but it is unstable when the value is greater than 1. Furthermore, an endemic equilibrium and stability is recorded when exceeds 1. To identify influential factors in COVID-19 spread, sensitivity index and sensitivity analyses of are conducted. The model perfectly integrates both prevention and therapy controls. As a result, numerical simulations show that the prevention control is more effective than the treatment control in reducing COVID-19 spread. Moreover, the simultaneous implementation of prevention and treatment controls outperforms individual control methods in mitigating COVID-19 spread. Finally, sensitivity analysis conducted with constant controls shows the contributions of the controls to disease dynamics.
{"title":"An optimal control model with sensitivity analysis for COVID-19 transmission using logistic recruitment rate","authors":"Jonner Nainggolan , Moch. Fandi Ansori , Hengki Tasman","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2024.100375","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.health.2024.100375","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes an optimal control model for COVID-19 spread, incorporating a logistic recruitment rate. The observations show the disease-free equilibrium exists when the population-existing threshold exceeds 1. The stability of equilibrium is determined by the basic reproduction number <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>. This implies that equilibrium is stable when <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> is less than or equal to 1, but it is unstable when the value is greater than 1. Furthermore, an endemic equilibrium and stability is recorded when <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> exceeds 1. To identify influential factors in COVID-19 spread, sensitivity index and sensitivity analyses of <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> are conducted. The model perfectly integrates both prevention and therapy controls. As a result, numerical simulations show that the prevention control is more effective than the treatment control in reducing COVID-19 spread. Moreover, the simultaneous implementation of prevention and treatment controls outperforms individual control methods in mitigating COVID-19 spread. Finally, sensitivity analysis conducted with constant controls shows the contributions of the controls to disease dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100375"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143172048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-07DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2025.100383
Stephen Edward , Nyimvua Shaban
This study develops a deterministic compartmental model that tracks Giardiasis’s direct and indirect transmission dynamics. The study begins by constructing a model incorporating four constant controls: health education, screening, hospitalization, and sanitation. The analytical results of the model are investigated and presented. The positivity of the solutions and the existence of invariant regions were established. The model exhibits a unique disease-free equilibrium and multiple endemic equilibria. The effective reproduction number was derived using the Next-Generation Matrix (NGM) approach, and its implications for the stability of the equilibria were explored. Local stability of the disease-free equilibrium was confirmed using the Routh–Hurwitz criteria, while global stability results were also presented. Sensitivity analysis was conducted based on the effective reproduction number, identifying the most influential parameters. We introduce an optimal control problem to curb the spread of Giardiasis. We rigorously establish the existence of optimal control solutions and analytically characterize these solutions using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. We conduct numerical simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of various control strategies. The results are promising, showing that the simultaneous implementation of all four control measures, education, screening, treatment, and sanitation, can lead to a significant reduction in disease cases, thereby offering a reassuring solution to the spread of Giardiasis.
{"title":"Deterministic compartmental model for optimal control strategies of Giardiasis infection with saturating incidence and environmental dynamics","authors":"Stephen Edward , Nyimvua Shaban","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.health.2025.100383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study develops a deterministic compartmental model that tracks Giardiasis’s direct and indirect transmission dynamics. The study begins by constructing a model incorporating four constant controls: health education, screening, hospitalization, and sanitation. The analytical results of the model are investigated and presented. The positivity of the solutions and the existence of invariant regions were established. The model exhibits a unique disease-free equilibrium and multiple endemic equilibria. The effective reproduction number was derived using the Next-Generation Matrix (NGM) approach, and its implications for the stability of the equilibria were explored. Local stability of the disease-free equilibrium was confirmed using the Routh–Hurwitz criteria, while global stability results were also presented. Sensitivity analysis was conducted based on the effective reproduction number, identifying the most influential parameters. We introduce an optimal control problem to curb the spread of Giardiasis. We rigorously establish the existence of optimal control solutions and analytically characterize these solutions using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. We conduct numerical simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of various control strategies. The results are promising, showing that the simultaneous implementation of all four control measures, education, screening, treatment, and sanitation, can lead to a significant reduction in disease cases, thereby offering a reassuring solution to the spread of Giardiasis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100383"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143171082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100379
Nawshin Haque, Tania Islam, Md Erfan
Autism Spectrum Disorder is a neurodevelopmental condition impacting an individual’s repetitive behaviours, social skills, verbal and nonverbal communication abilities, and capacity for acquiring new knowledge. Manifesting typically in early childhood, specifically between 6 months and 5 years, the symptoms of autism exhibit a progressive nature over time. This study explores the application of Logistic Regression, Support Vector Classifier, K-Nearest Neighbour, Decision Tree, and Random Forest for predicting Autism in children and toddlers by leveraging advancements in machine learning. The efficacy of these techniques is evaluated using publicly accessible datasets specific to both age groups. The findings indicate remarkable performance, with the toddler dataset achieving a mean Intersection over Union (mIoU) of 100 for Support Vector Classifier and 99.80 for Logistic Regression. Similarly, the children dataset demonstrates outstanding results, achieving an mIoU of 100 for Support Vector Classifier and 99.96 for Logistic Regression. Furthermore, all algorithms achieved 100 accuracy on the children (age 4–11) dataset collected from real-world sources. Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Classifier, and Decision Tree attained 100 accuracy and mIoU with the real-world dataset. These results underscore the potential of machine learning in aiding the early detection of ASD in children and toddlers, offering promising avenues for future research and clinical applications.
{"title":"An exploration of machine learning approaches for early Autism Spectrum Disorder detection","authors":"Nawshin Haque, Tania Islam, Md Erfan","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2024.100379","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.health.2024.100379","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Autism Spectrum Disorder is a neurodevelopmental condition impacting an individual’s repetitive behaviours, social skills, verbal and nonverbal communication abilities, and capacity for acquiring new knowledge. Manifesting typically in early childhood, specifically between 6 months and 5 years, the symptoms of autism exhibit a progressive nature over time. This study explores the application of Logistic Regression, Support Vector Classifier, K-Nearest Neighbour, Decision Tree, and Random Forest for predicting Autism in children and toddlers by leveraging advancements in machine learning. The efficacy of these techniques is evaluated using publicly accessible datasets specific to both age groups. The findings indicate remarkable performance, with the toddler dataset achieving a mean Intersection over Union (mIoU) of 100<span><math><mtext>%</mtext></math></span> for Support Vector Classifier and 99.80<span><math><mtext>%</mtext></math></span> for Logistic Regression. Similarly, the children dataset demonstrates outstanding results, achieving an mIoU of 100<span><math><mtext>%</mtext></math></span> for Support Vector Classifier and 99.96<span><math><mtext>%</mtext></math></span> for Logistic Regression. Furthermore, all algorithms achieved 100<span><math><mtext>%</mtext></math></span> accuracy on the children (age 4–11) dataset collected from real-world sources. Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Classifier, and Decision Tree attained 100<span><math><mtext>%</mtext></math></span> accuracy and mIoU with the real-world dataset. These results underscore the potential of machine learning in aiding the early detection of ASD in children and toddlers, offering promising avenues for future research and clinical applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"7 ","pages":"Article 100379"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143169862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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