CO2 has significant implications for hourly ambient temperature: Evidence from Hawaii

Abstract

A small group of climate scientists and influencers have vigorously disputed the scientific consensus on climate change. They have contributed to a belief system that has impeded policy actions to reduce emissions. They accept that more CO₂ in the atmosphere has consequences for the climate but strongly deny that the magnitude of the effect is significant. Using hourly CO₂ data from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, this article examines whether the hourly temperature data at the nearby Hilo International Airport support this belief. ARCH/ARMAX methods are employed because the hourly temperature data, even in Hawaii, are both highly autoregressive and volatile. The temperature data are analyzed using an archive of day-ahead hourly weather forecast data to control for expected meteorological outcomes. The model is estimated using 42,928 hourly observations from August 7, 2009, through December 31, 2014. CO₂ concentrations are found to have statistically significant implications for hourly temperature. The model is evaluated using hourly data from January 1, 2015, through December 31, 2017. The findings add to the consilience of evidence supporting the scientific consensus on climate change.