Computer-aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city

Yusuke Kishita, Takuma Masuda, Hidenori Nakamura, Kazumasu Aoki
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Designing backcasting scenarios is a powerful approach to the development of sustainable visions and pathways for governments or enterprises in the early stage of their policy-making or strategic decision-making process. To date, a number of scholars have proposed various backcasting methods, in which workshops are often used to reflect the voices of stakeholders. However, it is still a challenge to test the validity of scenarios because the process of designing backcasting scenarios is not transparent or shared among involved stakeholders. This also prevents reusing knowledge and intermediate outputs generated during the scenario design process. To solve these problems, this paper aims to develop a method for supporting a backcasting scenario design by introducing computational assistance. A scenario design support system called the sustainable society scenario (3S) simulator is used to visualize a scenario's logical sequence of the scenario in graph format. To demonstrate the proposed method, a case study for the city of Toyama, a Japanese municipality, was performed using three workshops with citizen participation. The results showed that two different scenarios, involving future visions and associated pathways, were developed by reflecting the diversified values of local citizens. The usage of the 3S simulator visualized the logical relations of the described scenarios, which consist of five blocks—problem definition, subgoals to achieve visions, measures to attain these subgoals, verification, and conclusions. This visualization is effective to increase the verifiability and reusability of the scenarios for evidence-based policy-making processes.

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基于参与式回溯的计算机辅助场景设计——以日本城市可持续视觉创造为例
设计回溯场景是政府或企业在决策或战略决策过程的早期阶段制定可持续愿景和途径的有力方法。迄今为止,许多学者提出了各种回溯方法,其中研讨会经常被用来反映利益相关者的声音。然而,测试场景的有效性仍然是一个挑战,因为设计回溯场景的过程是不透明的,也不是相关利益相关者共享的。这也防止重用在场景设计过程中生成的知识和中间输出。为了解决这些问题,本文旨在通过引入计算辅助来开发一种支持反向广播场景设计的方法。一个名为可持续社会场景(3S)模拟器的场景设计支持系统用于以图形格式可视化场景的逻辑序列。为了证明所提出的方法,对日本富山市进行了案例研究,使用了三个有公民参与的研讨会。结果表明,通过反映当地公民的多元化价值观,开发了两种不同的场景,涉及未来愿景和相关路径。3S模拟器的使用可视化了所描述场景的逻辑关系,它由五个块组成——问题定义、实现愿景的子目标、实现这些子目标的措施、验证和结论。这种可视化有效地提高了循证决策过程场景的可验证性和可重用性。
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Issue Information Simulation-based generation and analysis of multidimensional future scenarios with time series clustering Issue Information Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis A review of the future: A very short introduction
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