FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

This article develops a multi-layered framework for understanding how strategic foresight can function as a form of policy infrastructure within financial governance systems, with a particular focus on emerging economies. Drawing on recent literature on anticipatory governance, data-driven regulation, and institutional capacity-building, the paper argues that effective foresight depends not only on methodological tools but on the alignment of political, technical, participatory, and regulatory conditions. A structured review of secondary sources (2020–2024), complemented by descriptive analysis of the experiences of Singapore, India, and the OECD, is used to highlight common patterns in how financial authorities incorporate anticipation into their decision-making environments. These insights are then applied to the Iranian banking sector to illustrate how the proposed framework can organize existing information and reveal practical constraints and opportunities. The paper also outlines three exploratory scenarios for Iran in 2030, derived from the interplay of key technological, regulatory, and geopolitical drivers identified in the study. Rather than offering predictive claims, the analysis provides a structured way of interpreting institutional dynamics and clarifying the types of capabilities required for anticipatory governance in constrained settings. The findings underscore the importance of coherent political sponsorship, reliable data ecosystems, participatory mechanisms, and channels for translating foresight insights into regulatory action. The framework offers policymakers a way to diagnose systemic gaps and consider how foresight can be embedded more effectively within financial governance architectures.

Despite its usefulness as an innovation tool for strategic foresight, conventional roadmapping has several limitations in practice, such as linear tendency, poor articulation of value, difficulty and delay in implementation, and implicit certainty and persistent prejudice, as identified in existing literature. These limitations are further exacerbated in the digital transformation era due to radical and disruptive changes that fundamentally alter systems, calling for more innovative roadmapping practices for strategic foresight to navigate transformative changes. This study examines the potential of integrating design thinking principles and tools with roadmapping to address these challenges. An improved roadmapping process is proposed, by combining conceptual theories from a literature review of strategic roadmapping and design thinking. This process model is tested and further developed via an in-depth case study of an airline company undergoing digital transformation, based on participant observation. Feedbacks and verification interviews demonstrate the benefits of the new roadmapping approach, which incorporates principles of design thinking (e.g., human-centeredness, creative reframing, learning by doing, and divergence and convergence) and relevant tools (e.g., persona, customer journey map, and ideas menu) that are effective for forward-oriented strategic decision making under uncertainty. The proposed roadmapping process can improve firms' strategic foresight by providing informed and practical guidance for systematically designing, organizing, and executing roadmaps in rapidly evolving and highly disruptive environments of digital transformation. This study advances the literature on strategic roadmapping, and enables academic researchers to further explore how design thinking principles and tool-kits can enhance firms' foresight processes and capabilities in managing digital transformation.

Vietnam's rapid digital transformation presents a complex paradox: whilst the digital economy demonstrates exceptional growth exceeding 20% annually, the labour market exhibits deepening precarity and structural inequalities. This study employs a comprehensive Futures Studies approach, utilising Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), scenario planning, and the Futures Wheel, to examine Vietnam's digital labour dynamics through in-depth interviews with 28 stakeholders across five categories: workers, employers, educators, policymakers, and futures experts. Grounded in Inayatullah's Six Pillars Framework for futures thinking, the research reveals four distinct layers of causality: surface trends showing accelerated digitisation and gig economy expansion; systemic causes including policy-driven development and legal grey zones; worldviews characterised by pervasive techno-optimism and partnership illusions; and deep myths positioning Vietnam as an “Asian Tiger” pursuing a “Digital Leapfrog.” Futures Wheel analysis maps the cascading impacts of widespread AI adoption, while scenario planning identifies four potential pathways, ranging from inclusive digital prosperity to stratified precarity. The findings demonstrate how surface-level economic success can coexist with microeconomic vulnerability when social infrastructure fails to keep pace with technological advancements. This rigorous application of established Futures Studies methods provides empirical insights for managing digital labour transitions in emerging economies, contributing substantial case study evidence and practical policy insights for ensuring equitable development outcomes whilst leveraging technological opportunities.

Fusion energy is increasingly recognized as a potential game-changer in addressing the grand challenge of achieving deep decarbonization while ensuring long-term energy security. Recognizing the uncertainty surrounding fusion energy's technological maturity, commercialization timelines, and cost trajectories, this study adopts an anticipatory foresight approach tailored to high-uncertainty contexts. The research employs a mixed-methods framework incorporating horizon scanning, expert elicitation, trend analysis, and exploratory scenario planning. These methods were selected to account for deep technological uncertainty (e.g., plasma containment breakthroughs, cost convergence, fuel supply chain development), as well as systemic uncertainties related to sociopolitical acceptance and infrastructure readiness. For the case of Saudi Arabia, three distinct scenarios—Optimistic, Moderate, and Conservative—are developed to reflect a spectrum of plausible futures. Under the Optimistic Scenario, fusion could supply 10%–15% of Saudi Arabia's electricity mix by 2045 (50–75 TWh annually). The Moderate Scenario forecasts a 5%–10% contribution by 2050 (25–50 TWh), while the Conservative case sees fusion reaching under 5% by 2060 (< 25 TWh). These projections are framed within the broader uncertainty landscape, with sensitivity analyses on cost assumptions, technological learning curves, and policy interventions. A comparative assessment of anticipatory methodologies under these uncertainty levels underscores the limitations of deterministic forecasting and the value of scenario-based planning in guiding long-term energy policy. While fusion's economic feasibility remains uncertain, potential cost parity with advanced nuclear fission and gas-fired plants by mid-century is plausible. The paper concludes with strategic policy recommendations to reduce uncertainty and accelerate fusion adoption: increasing national R&D funding, fostering international and public-private collaborations, investing in adaptive grid infrastructure, and developing flexible regulatory frameworks.

From past to present, the defense industry has consistently driven technological innovation, acting as a catalyst for breakthroughs that extend beyond military applications. As global defense strategies increasingly rely on cutting-edge technologies, identifying areas of investment that align with Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) policies has become crucial. Using the Delphi method, this study gathers insights from 74 Turkish defense-sector professionals—academics, engineers, and military officers—to evaluate 14 priority technology domains defined by the European Defense Agency taxonomy. Türkiye's short-, medium-, and long-term roadmap for digital transformation emphasizes immediate-impact areas, including cybersecurity, sensor systems, and design technologies, as well as long-horizon priorities, including photonics, advanced materials, and propulsion systems. Cybersecurity stands out as a disruptive, high-impact domain, reshaping both Türkiye's defense capabilities and the global security paradigm. The results function as a policy roadmap, allowing decision-makers to reconcile near-term readiness with long-term strategic autonomy by aligning investments, regulatory frameworks, and innovation incentives. These technologies challenge existing norms and demand adaptive policy frameworks that can anticipate and regulate their influence on national security. The integration of such technologies into defense frameworks represents a paradigmatic shift, reshaping military strategies and global power dynamics. The findings of this study contribute to ongoing discussions about the foresight of emerging technologies and their strategic implications within the defense industry, positioning it at the forefront of global technological transformation.

The use of green hydrogen has emerged as a promising avenue for facilitating the decarbonization of society. In this study, the potential futures of green hydrogen in Portugal, a key player in Europe's energy transition, are explored. Utilizing General Morphological Analysis combined with advanced clustering, the various political, social, and technological elements are analyzed to create a multifaceted view of the sector's future. This results in seven distinct scenario clusters, each offering unique insights into the challenges and opportunities for green hydrogen. The scenarios span a range of outcomes, from rapid growth fueled by strong policy support and technological advancements to more measured development due to economic or infrastructural hurdles. This study intends to provide stakeholders a deep understanding of the factors influencing green hydrogen's role in Portugal's push towards a sustainable energy landscape by 2030. These results provide a basis for the development of new projects and research directions, providing them with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Moreover, this study will contribute to decision support by facilitating actions aimed at fostering the appropriate development of green hydrogen.