Constructing Delphi statements for technology foresight

Per Dannemand Andersen
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Since its introduction decades ago, the Delphi method has become a popular instrument of broad application within the field of technology foresight and for wider science, technology, and innovation policy-making. The Delphi method has also attracted interest from a methodological perspective. The literature on the Delphi method demonstrates a research gap on the issue of Delphi statements and respondents' understanding of those statements. Based on a systematic literature review, this paper examines the existing knowledge and practices in constructing Delphi statements. A key contribution of the paper is a set of practical recommendations for constructing Delphi statements for technology foresight. Furthermore, the paper suggests future research on the topic.

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构建技术预见的Delphi语句
自几十年前引入以来,德尔菲方法已成为技术预见领域以及更广泛的科学、技术和创新决策领域中广泛应用的流行工具。德尔菲方法也从方法论的角度引起了人们的兴趣。关于德尔菲方法的文献表明,在德尔菲陈述问题和受访者对这些陈述的理解方面存在研究空白。在系统文献综述的基础上,本文考察了在构建Delphi语句方面现有的知识和实践。本文的一个关键贡献是为构建技术前瞻的Delphi语句提供了一套实用的建议。此外,本文还对该课题的未来研究提出了建议。
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Issue Information Simulation-based generation and analysis of multidimensional future scenarios with time series clustering Issue Information Incorporating judgment in forecasting models in times of crisis A review of the future: A very short introduction
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