Public Opinion on Geopolitics and Trade: Theory and Evidence

IF 4.5 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS World Politics Pub Date : 2022-04-11 DOI:10.1017/s0043887121000265
Allison Carnegie, Nikhar Gaikwad
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引用次数: 13

Abstract

This article provides a systematic examination of the role of security considerations in shaping mass preferences over international economic exchange. The authors employ multiple survey experiments conducted in the United States and India, along with observational and case study evidence, to investigate how geopolitics affects voters’ views of international trade. Their research shows that respondents consistently—and by large margins—prefer trading with allies over adversaries. Negative prior beliefs about adversaries, amplified by concerns that trade will bolster the partner's military, account for this preference. Yet the authors also find that a significant proportion of the public believes that trade can lead to peace and that the peace-inducing aspects of trade can cause voters to overcome their aversion to trade with adversaries. This article helps explain when and why governments constrained by public opinion pursue economic cooperation in the shadow of conflict.

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地缘政治与贸易的民意:理论与证据
本文系统地考察了安全考虑在形成相对于国际经济交换的大众偏好方面所起的作用。作者采用了在美国和印度进行的多项调查实验,以及观察和案例研究证据,来调查地缘政治如何影响选民对国际贸易的看法。他们的研究表明,受访者始终——而且在很大程度上——更喜欢与盟友而不是对手进行贸易。这种偏好是由对对手的负面先前信念造成的,而对贸易将增强合作伙伴军事实力的担忧又放大了这种信念。然而,作者还发现,很大一部分公众认为贸易可以带来和平,而贸易的和平诱导方面可以使选民克服对与对手进行贸易的厌恶。本文有助于解释受公众舆论约束的政府何时以及为何会在冲突的阴影下寻求经济合作。
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来源期刊
World Politics
World Politics Multiple-
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: World Politics, founded in 1948, is an internationally renowned quarterly journal of political science published in both print and online versions. Open to contributions by scholars, World Politics invites submission of research articles that make theoretical and empirical contributions to the literature, review articles, and research notes bearing on problems in international relations and comparative politics. The journal does not publish articles on current affairs, policy pieces, or narratives of a journalistic nature. Articles submitted for consideration are unsolicited, except for review articles, which are usually commissioned. Published for the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Affairs
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