Estimating a model of forward-looking behavior with discrete choice experiments: The case of lifetime hunting license demand

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100414
Yusun Kim, Carson Reeling, Nicole J.O. Widmar, John G. Lee
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Abstract

Sales of deer licenses, one of the most important revenue sources for wildlife management at the Indiana Department of Natural Resources (IDNR), have been declining for a decade. To increase its revenue, the IDNR is considering introducing a new lifetime deer license for sale. This license would allow hunters to harvest deer (and possibly other species) each year for the rest of their lives in exchange for a relatively large up-front fee. The forward-looking nature of the decision to buy a lifetime license means hunters' choice behavior is necessarily dynamic. Prior work estimates preferences for long-lived, durable goods using standard discrete choice experiments underpinned by static models. We derive a dynamic discrete choice model of lifetime license purchases. Our model informs the design of a novel, dynamic discrete choice experiment, generating data that allows us to consistently estimate individuals’ forward-looking preferences for lifetime hunting licenses. We use our model to estimate the price of lifetime licenses that maximizes IDNR revenues.

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用离散选择实验估计前瞻性行为模型:以终身狩猎许可证需求为例
鹿许可证是印第安纳州自然资源部(IDNR)野生动物管理最重要的收入来源之一,其销售额十年来一直在下降。为了增加收入,IDNR正在考虑推出一种新的终身鹿许可证出售。这一许可证将允许猎人在余生中每年收获鹿(可能还有其他物种),以换取相对较大的前期费用。购买终身许可证决定的前瞻性意味着猎人的选择行为必然是动态的。先前的工作使用以静态模型为基础的标准离散选择实验来估计对长寿命耐用商品的偏好。我们推导了终身许可证购买的动态离散选择模型。我们的模型为设计一个新颖的、动态的离散选择实验提供了信息,生成的数据使我们能够一致地估计个人对终身狩猎许可证的前瞻性偏好。我们使用我们的模型来估计使IDNR收入最大化的终身许可证的价格。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
31
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