Journal of Choice Modelling最新文献

英文中文

An instrument-free approach for estimating multinomial logit models with endogenous variables 估计具有内生变量的多项logit模型的无仪器方法

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2026.100595

Louis de Grange , Matthieu Marechal , Rodrigo Troncoso , Raúl Pezoa , Felipe González

An approach is developed for estimating multinomial logit models with endogenous explanatory variables that dispenses with the need for instrumental variables, a significant advantage given that good quality exogenous instruments are often not available. The proposed instrument-free method extends and adapts that of Breitung et al. (2024), which was developed specifically for multiple linear regression models. Simulations were conducted to make comparisons with control functions, which do require instruments, and the classic maximum likelihood technique, which does not correct for endogeneity, under different levels of correlation between the endogenous variable and the error term. The results showed that the proposed approach performed very satisfactorily. To supplement the simulations, the instrument-free method was applied to a case with real-world data, once again obtaining good results compared to control functions. The proposed method is easily implemented and can be used with models containing multiple exogenous and endogenous variables, as well as with the multinomial probit model. It should prove very useful for researchers and other professionals estimating models for public policy evaluation, transport planning and consumer behaviour analyses.

我们开发了一种方法来估计具有内生解释变量的多项logit模型，该方法不需要工具变量，这是一个显著的优势，因为通常没有高质量的外生工具。提出的无仪器方法扩展并适应了Breitung et al.（2024）的方法，该方法是专门为多元线性回归模型开发的。在不同程度的内生变量和误差项之间的相关性下，进行了模拟，以比较需要仪器的控制函数和经典的最大似然技术，后者不校正内生性。结果表明，该方法的性能令人满意。为了补充仿真，将无仪器方法应用于具有实际数据的案例，与控制函数相比，再次获得了良好的结果。该方法易于实现，可用于包含多个外生变量和内生变量的模型，也可用于多项概率模型。它对研究人员和其他专业人员估计公共政策评估、运输规划和消费者行为分析的模型应该非常有用。

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引用次数: 0

Which rubber duck makes the best decoy? Considering the decoy effect on the basis of different behavioral theories 哪只橡皮鸭是最好的诱饵？基于不同的行为理论考虑诱饵效应

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100585

Francisco Bahamonde-Birke , C. Angelo Guevara

Empirical evidence has established the existence of a phenomenon known as the decoy effect, which suggests that including irrelevant alternatives into a choice-set may affect the way in which the original alternatives are evaluated. In this paper we explore different ways to characterize the decoy effect and offer an in-depth discussion on the theoretical and empirical implications of the different modeling approaches. We also consider a stated preference experiment for which we model the phenomenon according to the assumptions of regret theory, emergent value, and prospect theory. Based on theoretical and empirical considerations, our results suggest that models based on prospect theory seem to outperform alternative behavioral paradigms to model the decoy effect.

经验证据已经证实了一种被称为诱饵效应的现象的存在，这种现象表明，将不相关的选择纳入选择集可能会影响对原始选择的评估方式。在本文中，我们探索了不同的方法来表征诱饵效应，并对不同建模方法的理论和实证意义进行了深入的讨论。我们还考虑了一个陈述偏好实验，我们根据后悔理论、涌现价值和前景理论的假设对现象进行了建模。基于理论和实证考虑，我们的研究结果表明，基于前景理论的模型在模拟诱饵效应方面似乎优于其他行为范式。

引用次数: 0

On the asymptotic variance of latent class logit models for discrete choice applications 离散选择应用中潜在类logit模型的渐近方差

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100586

Peio Alcorta, Petr Mariel

We derive the Hessian matrix and asymptotic variance of linear-in-parameters latent class logit models. These analytical solutions enable precise estimation of standard errors, significantly improve post-estimation computational efficiency, and may offer deeper theoretical insights into model behaviour and stability.

我们导出了参数线性潜类逻辑模型的Hessian矩阵和渐近方差。这些解析解能够精确估计标准误差，显著提高估计后的计算效率，并可能为模型行为和稳定性提供更深入的理论见解。

引用次数: 0

Semi-dynamics of electric vehicle adoption based on strategic consumer choices: Preference statement-guided forward-looking behavior based on individual expectations 基于战略性消费者选择的电动汽车采用半动态：基于个人期望的偏好陈述引导的前瞻性行为

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100584

Wooje Seong , Hyunhong Choi , Yoonmo Koo

引用次数: 0

Capturing zero-price effects in stated choice surveys: implications for willingness-to-pay and welfare 在明确的选择调查中捕捉零价格效应：对支付意愿和福利的影响

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100582

Jeff Tjiong , Thijs Dekker , Stephane Hess , Marek Giergiczny , Manuel Ojeda-Cabral , Mikołaj Czajkowski

Stated choice surveys commonly used in public policy appraisal – such as in transport or environmental economics – often contrast a ‘free’ status quo alternative against a range of (policy) interventions which can be implemented at a cost. Limited attention has, however, been paid to the fact that the ‘free’ nature of the status quo (SQ) alternative may make the SQ alternative overly attractive due to the zero-price (ZP) effect. The ZP effect is a well-established notion in behavioural economics explaining the phenomenon that individuals tend to over-react to free alternatives. We present an experimental design setup allowing the separation of the ZP effect from the SQ effect together with the identification of non-linear sensitivities to costs. Choices made by students between different mobile broadband packages are used for illustrational purposes. Our analysis shows that the ZP effect is significant and the observed preference to remain in the SQ is largely due to the ZP effect. In practice, this may lead to biased welfare estimates for public policy packages if the ZP effect is not explicitly accounted for. Moreover, we also show that misspecification of the functional form for cost can lead to significant bias in WTP estimates and the ZP and SQ effects.

通常用于公共政策评估的陈述性选择调查——例如在交通或环境经济学中——经常将“自由”的现状替代方案与一系列可以付出代价实施的（政策）干预措施进行对比。然而，很少有人注意到，由于零价格（ZP）效应，现状（SQ）替代方案的“免费”性质可能使现状（SQ）替代方案过于吸引人。ZP效应是行为经济学中一个公认的概念，它解释了个人倾向于对免费选择做出过度反应的现象。我们提出了一种实验设计设置，允许将ZP效应与SQ效应分离，并识别对成本的非线性敏感性。学生在不同的移动宽带套餐之间的选择是为了说明目的。我们的分析表明，ZP效应是显著的，观察到的留在SQ中的偏好很大程度上是由于ZP效应。在实践中，如果没有明确考虑到ZP效应，这可能会导致对公共政策方案的福利估计有偏差。此外，我们还表明，成本函数形式的错误说明可能导致WTP估计以及ZP和SQ效应的显著偏差。

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引用次数: 0

A neural estimation framework for discrete choice models with arbitrary error distributions 具有任意误差分布的离散选择模型的神经估计框架

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100583

Niousha Bagheri , Milad Ghasri , Michael Barlow

This paper presents RUM-NN, a neural network framework that is fully consistent with the Random Utility Maximisation (RUM) theory and designed to flexibly model discrete choice behaviour under a wide range of error distributions. RUM-NN contributes a flexible estimation approach to accommodate arbitrary error distributions. This enables the modelling of choice probabilities even when closed-form solutions are unavailable, accommodating arbitrary error structures, including correlated and non-conventional distributions. The proposed RUM-NN is introduced in both linear and non-linear structures. The linear version of RUM-NN retains interpretability similar to traditional econometric models, while the nonlinear extension enhances predictive flexibility by capturing complex relationships in the utility function. The performance of RUM-NN in parameter recovery and prediction accuracy is rigorously evaluated using synthetic datasets through Monte Carlo experiments. Additionally, RUM-NN is evaluated on the Swissmetro and the London Passenger Mode Choice (LPMC) datasets with different sets of distribution assumptions for the error component. The results demonstrate that RUM-NN under linear utility structure and IID Gumbel error terms can replicate the performance of Multinomial Logit model, but relaxing those constraints yields to superior performance for both Swissmetro and LMPC datasets. By introducing a novel estimation approach aligned with statistical theories, this study empowers econometricians to harness the advantages of neural network models. To facilitate the implementation of RUM-NN, a Python library has been developed and made publicly available.

本文提出了一种完全符合随机效用最大化（RUM）理论的神经网络框架RUM- nn，旨在灵活地模拟大范围误差分布下的离散选择行为。RUM-NN提供了一种灵活的估计方法来适应任意误差分布。这使得即使在封闭形式的解决方案不可用的情况下，也可以对选择概率进行建模，以适应任意误差结构，包括相关分布和非常规分布。在线性和非线性结构中都引入了该方法。线性版本的RUM-NN保留了与传统计量经济模型相似的可解释性，而非线性扩展通过捕获效用函数中的复杂关系来增强预测灵活性。利用合成数据集，通过蒙特卡罗实验严格评价了rumn - nn在参数恢复和预测精度方面的性能。此外，在瑞士地铁和伦敦乘客模式选择（LPMC）数据集上对rumn - nn进行了评估，并对误差分量进行了不同的分布假设。结果表明，在线性效用结构和IID Gumbel误差项下，rumn - nn可以复制多项式Logit模型的性能，但放宽这些约束可以在Swissmetro和LMPC数据集上获得更好的性能。通过引入一种新的与统计理论相结合的估计方法，本研究使计量经济学家能够利用神经网络模型的优势。为了促进RUM-NN的实现，已经开发了一个Python库并使其公开可用。

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引用次数: 0

Sensitivity analysis of Bayesian estimates of value function parameters to priors using imprecise probabilities 使用不精确概率的值函数参数的贝叶斯估计对先验的敏感性分析

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100581

Ambuj Sriwastava, Peter Reichert

The elicitation and quantification of preferences of individuals or aggregated preferences of stakeholders or samples of the population are crucial for decision support. This can be done by statistically evaluating the results of discrete choice inquiries using a parameterized value function. When doing this with Bayesian inference, the specification of a prior can be challenging as it may be difficult to find similar cases to transfer knowledge. This makes it particularly important to be informed about the sensitivity of the results to the choice of the prior. This can be done by computing posteriors for different plausible priors and analyzing differences between them. This is infeasible for a large number of priors. This paper proposes the application of Density Ratio Classes, which sandwich non-normalized prior densities between specified lower and upper functional bounds. In this study, differences among posteriors resulting from priors in such a class are analyzed by comparing marginal posterior credible intervals. We compute “outer” credible intervals that range from the minimum of all lower bounds to the maximum of all upper bounds of marginal posterior credible intervals with the same quantile bounds resulting from the priors in the density ratio class. The methodology is easy to implement and only requires one Markov chain of the posterior resulting from the upper function. We provide an R package “DRclass” that supports such implementations. Theoretical considerations and three case studies provide illustration and guidance about constructing the prior density ratio class.

激发和量化个人偏好或利益相关者或人口样本的总体偏好对决策支持至关重要。这可以通过使用参数化值函数对离散选择查询的结果进行统计评估来完成。当使用贝叶斯推理进行此操作时，先验的规范可能具有挑战性，因为可能很难找到类似的案例来转移知识。这使得了解结果对先验选择的敏感性尤为重要。这可以通过计算不同可信先验的后验并分析它们之间的差异来完成。这对于大量先验是不可行的。本文提出了密度比类的应用，它将非归一化的先验密度夹在特定的下界和上界之间。在本研究中，通过比较边际后验可信区间来分析此类中由先验引起的后验之间的差异。我们计算“外部”可信区间，其范围从所有下界的最小值到边际后验可信区间的所有上界的最大值，具有由密度比类中的先验产生的相同分位数界。该方法易于实现，并且只需要由上函数得到的一个后验马尔可夫链。我们提供了一个R包“DRclass”来支持这样的实现。理论思考和三个案例研究为构建先验密度比类提供了说明和指导。

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引用次数: 0

Re-examining the no-choice option in conjoint analysis 重新审视联合分析中的无选择选项

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100578

Cheng-Yu Hung , Peter Kurz , Roger A. Bailey , Joel Huber , Greg M. Allenby

The validity of using conjoint analysis to conduct an economic evaluation of product characteristics rests on the inclusion of brand names, prices, and an outside “no-choice” option in the choice task. The no-choice option is included in case respondents determine that some other offering, not included in the conjoint choice task, is preferred to those that are included and that it would be better to hold onto their money and not make a purchase at that time. Selecting the no-choice option assumes that respondents have some level of knowledge of the value and prices of goods in the market. In this paper, we show that survey respondents may lack this information and make inferences about market prices from the conjoint exercise itself. This learning effect is especially problematic for new products for which a set of reference prices do not yet exist, but can also be problematic in established markets that are familiar. We discuss results from two sets of conjoint experiments, one in a new product category conducted in three countries in Europe, and another in an established category in the United States involving three experimental conditions that inform respondents about products and prices available in the marketplace. We find that the lack of knowledge of competitive offerings and prices affects estimates of brand values but not the value of other product features. In addition, we discuss aspects of how a well-designed conjoint study mitigates the effects of this type of learning in conjoint analysis.

使用联合分析对产品特征进行经济评价的有效性取决于在选择任务中包含品牌名称、价格和外部“无选择”选项。无选择选项包括在这样的情况下，即受访者确定一些其他的产品，不包括在联合选择任务中，比那些包括在内的更受欢迎，并且最好持有他们的钱，而不是在那个时候购买。选择无选择选项假设受访者对市场上商品的价值和价格有一定程度的了解。在本文中，我们表明调查对象可能缺乏这些信息，并从联合练习本身推断市场价格。这种学习效应对于尚未存在一套参考价格的新产品尤其成问题，但对于熟悉的成熟市场也可能成问题。我们讨论了两组联合实验的结果，一组是在欧洲三个国家进行的新产品类别，另一组是在美国的既定类别，涉及三个实验条件，告知受访者市场上可用的产品和价格。我们发现，缺乏对竞争产品和价格的了解会影响对品牌价值的估计，但不会影响其他产品特征的价值。此外，我们讨论了一个设计良好的联合研究如何在联合分析中减轻这种类型的学习的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Recursive logit models for dynamic versus sequential trip chaining 动态与顺序行程链的递归逻辑模型

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100576

Stephen McCarthy, Fatemeh Naqavi, Anders Karlström

This paper applies recursive logit (RL) to model activity-trip chaining behaviour. We present a comparison between two approaches to applying the RL model in this context. In the first ‘sequential’ approach, agents form a trip chain by making a sequence of joint choices of activity location (i.e. trip destination) and travel mode, ending the chain by choosing to return home. The second ‘dynamic’ approach adds a time variable. Its agents form a full-day activity/travel schedule by making a sequence of choices either to continue the current activity for a fixed timestep or make a joint choice of new activity location and travel mode. We estimate parameters for both models using data from a Stockholm travel survey and validate model simulations against observed data. The models reproduce patterns of observed behaviour beyond their estimated parameters, including different types of trip chains and the spatial distribution of activities. While the dynamic model is advantageous in its ability to predict agent schedules, reflect time-varying travel conditions and endogenously represent space–time constraints, it does not surpass the simpler sequential model on mutual areas of trip chaining behaviour. We conclude that the RL model is well-suited to model trip chaining behaviour, and that the simpler sequential approach may be appropriate for many modelling purposes.

本文应用递归逻辑（RL）对活动-行程链行为进行建模。我们提出了在这种情况下应用RL模型的两种方法之间的比较。在第一个“顺序”方法中，agent通过一系列共同选择活动地点（即旅行目的地）和旅行方式形成一个旅行链，并以选择回家结束该链。第二种“动态”方法增加了一个时间变量。它的代理通过做出一系列选择，或者在固定的时间步继续当前的活动，或者联合选择新的活动地点和旅行方式，形成全天的活动/旅行计划。我们使用来自斯德哥尔摩旅行调查的数据估计两个模型的参数，并根据观测数据验证模型模拟。这些模型再现了超出其估计参数的观测行为模式，包括不同类型的行程链和活动的空间分布。虽然动态模型在预测agent调度、反映时变旅行条件和内生表示时空约束方面具有优势，但在行程链行为的相互区域上，它并没有超越简单的序列模型。我们得出结论，RL模型非常适合模拟行程链行为，并且更简单的顺序方法可能适用于许多建模目的。

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引用次数: 0

A special Cholesky-based parameterization for estimation of restricted correlation matrices 一种特殊的基于cholesk的参数化方法，用于限制性相关矩阵的估计

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Choice Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100580

Kun Huang, Xin Ye, Mengyi Wang

Estimating a valid correlation matrix with structural restrictions presents significant challenges, particularly in ensuring positive definiteness and enforcing zero-correlation constraints. Traditional approaches, such as the Cholesky decomposition, often suffer from numerical instability and convergence failures in these settings. This paper introduces a novel Cholesky-based parameterization that effectively addresses these issues by allowing zero constraints while maintaining positive definiteness and unit diagonal elements. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the existing spherical parameterization approach, achieving superior convergence rates, enhanced estimation accuracy, and robustness under high-correlation scenarios. An empirical application on non-commuters’ activity participation in Shanghai further validates the practical effectiveness of the proposed method, showcasing its ability to capture complex behavioral relationships while ensuring stable estimation. The results suggest that the proposed parameterization provides a reliable and computationally efficient alternative for correlation matrix estimation in multivariate models.

估计具有结构限制的有效相关矩阵提出了重大挑战，特别是在确保正确定性和强制零相关约束方面。传统的方法，如Cholesky分解，在这些情况下经常遭受数值不稳定和收敛失败。本文介绍了一种新颖的基于choleski的参数化，通过允许零约束同时保持正确定性和单位对角元素，有效地解决了这些问题。通过广泛的蒙特卡罗模拟，我们证明了所提出的方法优于现有的球面参数化方法，在高相关场景下实现了优越的收敛速度，提高了估计精度和鲁棒性。对上海非通勤者活动参与的实证应用进一步验证了所提方法的实际有效性，展示了其在确保稳定估计的同时捕获复杂行为关系的能力。结果表明，所提出的参数化方法为多变量模型中的相关矩阵估计提供了一种可靠且计算效率高的替代方法。

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引用次数: 0

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