India’s path towards energy independence and a clean future: Harnessing india’s renewable edge for cost-effective energy independence by 2047

Abstract

India’s heavy dependence on imported oil (90 %) and industrial coking coal (80 %) exposes the country to the volatility in global energy markets, impacting foreign exchange reserves & economy-wide inflation. This study assesses a pathway for India to meet its growing energy needs & achieve near-complete energy independence by 2047, focused on India’s three largest energy consuming sectors –power, transport, and industry — which collectively account for more than 80 % of energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions. We find that India can achieve energy independence through aggressive deployment of clean technology – renewables, electric vehicles, and green hydrogen - reducing the fossil energy imports by 90 % (or $240 billion). Clean energy deployment will inflation-proof India’s energy expenditure, create $2.5 trillion in net consumer savings, and avoid over 4 million air pollution related premature deaths by 2047. India’s electricity demand could increase nearly fivefold to over 6500 TWh/yr by 2047, while CO2 emissions from power, transport, and industrial sectors will peak in the early 2030 s before dropping to ∼800 million tons/year. Clean energy deployment will be more capital-intensive, needing a net additional investment of $1.5 trillion. Managing the clean energy transition would require significant policy support, including deployment mandates for cost-effective clean technologies, financial support for emerging technologies, long-term infrastructure planning, accelerating domestic manufacturing, and planning for a just transition.