The impact of passenger electric vehicles on carbon reduction and environmental impact under the 2050 net zero policy in Taiwan

Abstract

In response to the 2050 net-zero emission goal, Taiwan initiated the “Pathway to Net-Zero Emissions” in 2022, including a focus on electric vehicles (EVs). However, the emission reduction effect of electric vehicles has not been fully studied in Taiwan. Therefore, this study aims to conduct life cycle assessment (LCA) on environmental performance by replacing petrol vehicles with electric vehicles on the basis of the well-to-wheel method. This study also establishes a feedback mechanism through system dynamics to correlate the DALY results of LCA with population and energy demand. Results of the impact of DALY on lifespan and population is relatively small, indicating that the reduction in environmental impact from electric vehicles helps mitigate the decline in population. The emission-reducing potential and environmental impact of electric vehicles by 2050 are also estimated. Results demonstrate that within a 95% confidence interval and considering uncertainties arising from total driving distance, fuel economy, and energy intensity of electric vehicles, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles in 2050 will be between 7.826 × 10⁵ and 1.069 × 10⁶ tCO₂e, respectively. In addition, the emission-reducing potential of electric vehicles is in the range of 1.076 × 10⁶ to 1.804 × 10⁶ tCO₂e.