An application of nonlinear dynamics to the presidential nomination process

Abstract

During the past two decades a new perspective known as nonlinear dynamics has caught the imagination of researchers in a number of disciplines of the physical sciences. Recently, some of the assumptions of this theory have begun to be applied to the social sciences, including economics, political science and public administration. We believe that the way the current presidential nomination system aggregates individual preferences into a social choice exhibits behavior consistent with nonlinear dynamics. We argue that the nomination system is characterized by two nonlinear processes: sensitive dependence and nonmonotonic behavior.

In this paper, we present a nonlinear dynamical perspective for understanding presidential nomination processes. In particular, we address the question of whether very modest changes, in parameters can produce major changes in the outcome of the campaign. We suggest that resource acquisition, resource allocations, vote outcomes, and media verdicts interact with each other in a complex and dynamic fashion that has dramatic effects upon the allocation of delegates, and hence, the final nomination outcome.