{"title":"Looking back at looking forward","authors":"Richard N. Farmer","doi":"10.1016/0007-6813(73)90057-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We will have to wait to see how good our present forecasting methodologies are, but we can test futurologists of earlier times. The author has checked a selection of Fortune's forecasts as far back as 1933. Examination reveals that predictions were on target in three areas-technology, general trends, and structural change in the economy. They fell far short of the mark, however, in the areas of legal, political, and international constraints; the personal impact of economic factors; and the personal impact of various innovations. But the failures were often not too far off and the correct ones, if heeded, could have saved us time and money. Unfortunately, the people problems that plagued the Fortune forecasts are still unsolved today.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48347,"journal":{"name":"Business Horizons","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 21-28"},"PeriodicalIF":7.0000,"publicationDate":"1973-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0007-6813(73)90057-8","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Business Horizons","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0007681373900578","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
We will have to wait to see how good our present forecasting methodologies are, but we can test futurologists of earlier times. The author has checked a selection of Fortune's forecasts as far back as 1933. Examination reveals that predictions were on target in three areas-technology, general trends, and structural change in the economy. They fell far short of the mark, however, in the areas of legal, political, and international constraints; the personal impact of economic factors; and the personal impact of various innovations. But the failures were often not too far off and the correct ones, if heeded, could have saved us time and money. Unfortunately, the people problems that plagued the Fortune forecasts are still unsolved today.
期刊介绍：
Business Horizons, the bimonthly journal of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University, is dedicated to publishing original articles that appeal to both business academics and practitioners. Our editorial focus is on covering a diverse array of topics within the broader field of business, with a particular emphasis on identifying critical business issues and proposing practical solutions. Our goal is to inspire readers to approach business practices from new and innovative perspectives. Business Horizons occupies a distinctive position among business publications by offering articles that strike a balance between academic rigor and practical relevance. As such, our articles are grounded in scholarly research yet presented in a clear and accessible format, making them relevant to a broad audience within the business community.
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