Disclosure standards and market efficiency: Evidence from analysts' forecasts

Abstract

This paper studies whether recent international transparency initiatives affect information accuracy and dispersion. I show that the impact of these initiatives is limited because public disclosure crowds out private investments in information. I first develop a theoretical model of the incentive to invest in information and the impact of public disclosure. I then analyze stock market analysts' forecasts for thirty developing economies for the period 1990–2004. I find that disclosure standards enhance forecast accuracy directly but at the same time reduce the number of analysts per stock (proxy for private information investments). The net effect of disclosure standards thus ranges from weak to nonexistent.