Pub Date : 2025-04-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104085
Felipe Brugués , Ayumu Ken Kikkawa , Yuan Mei , Pablo Robles
This paper assesses the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Mexican manufacturing plants’ output prices and markups. We distinguish between Mexican goods that are exported and those sold domestically, and decompose their prices separately into markups and marginal costs. We then analyze how these components were affected by the reductions in Mexican output tariffs, intermediate input tariffs, and U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports. We find that domestically sold products saw a decline in prices as Mexican plants faced more competition and gained access to cheaper inputs. Prices of exported goods fell only slightly as plants increased their markups in response to a favorable competitive environment due to declines in U.S. tariffs.
{"title":"The impact of NAFTA on prices and competition: Evidence from Mexican manufacturing plants","authors":"Felipe Brugués , Ayumu Ken Kikkawa , Yuan Mei , Pablo Robles","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper assesses the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Mexican manufacturing plants’ output prices and markups. We distinguish between Mexican goods that are exported and those sold domestically, and decompose their prices separately into markups and marginal costs. We then analyze how these components were affected by the reductions in Mexican output tariffs, intermediate input tariffs, and U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports. We find that domestically sold products saw a decline in prices as Mexican plants faced more competition and gained access to cheaper inputs. Prices of exported goods fell only slightly as plants increased their markups in response to a favorable competitive environment due to declines in U.S. tariffs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104085"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143777599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104080
Hillary Stein
I examine the effect of exogenous terms of trade shocks on an exchange rate by turning to New Zealand’s dairy auctions. Dairy is New Zealand’s largest export category, making up almost 20 percent of exports. Specifically, whole milk powder accounts for 6 to 11 percent of total exports, and its price is determined in twice-monthly auctions. I use event studies to quantify the impact of surprise auction results on the New Zealand dollar on a high-frequency basis. I find that a 1 percent surprise increase in whole milk powder prices has a modest, but nevertheless significant, effect on the nominal exchange rate. The methodology developed here can potentially be applied to other commodity exporters.
{"title":"Got milk? The effect of export price shocks on exchange rates","authors":"Hillary Stein","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I examine the effect of exogenous terms of trade shocks on an exchange rate by turning to New Zealand’s dairy auctions. Dairy is New Zealand’s largest export category, making up almost 20 percent of exports. Specifically, whole milk powder accounts for 6 to 11 percent of total exports, and its price is determined in twice-monthly auctions. I use event studies to quantify the impact of surprise auction results on the New Zealand dollar on a high-frequency basis. I find that a 1 percent surprise increase in whole milk powder prices has a modest, but nevertheless significant, effect on the nominal exchange rate. The methodology developed here can potentially be applied to other commodity exporters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104080"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143786123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104064
Mélina London , Maéva Silvestrini
This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of US monetary policy surprises on firm-to-firm trade credit in emerging markets, using a proprietary firm-level database. We show that trade credit acts as a buffer against the adverse effects of US monetary tightening, which, by constraining global financial conditions, increases reliance on trade credit as an alternative financing source. This effect is more pronounced for buyers with poor credit quality, who are primarily affected when financial conditions tighten. This later effect only exists in pre-existing relationships, where trust can be more readily established, compared to new partnerships. Given the widespread use of trade credit in emerging markets, this buffering role is crucial for mitigating financial pressures in these economies.
{"title":"US monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: The role of trade credit","authors":"Mélina London , Maéva Silvestrini","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of US monetary policy surprises on firm-to-firm trade credit in emerging markets, using a proprietary firm-level database. We show that trade credit acts as a buffer against the adverse effects of US monetary tightening, which, by constraining global financial conditions, increases reliance on trade credit as an alternative financing source. This effect is more pronounced for buyers with poor credit quality, who are primarily affected when financial conditions tighten. This later effect only exists in pre-existing relationships, where trust can be more readily established, compared to new partnerships. Given the widespread use of trade credit in emerging markets, this buffering role is crucial for mitigating financial pressures in these economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104064"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143682278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104081
Volodymyr Lugovskyy , Alexandre Skiba , David Terner
We assess the expected impact of the upcoming International Maritime Organization’s CO emissions cap on global maritime shipping. Using detailed data on U.S. imports—covering vessels, routes, emissions, and trade—we estimate a model that allows for substitution between maritime, air, and land transport. Our findings show that the cap will drive a shift to more carbon-intensive air and land transport, leading to an overall increase in transportation-related CO emissions in both the short- and long-run. Additionally, it will cause significant welfare losses. Our findings support a case for more efficient alternative policy options.
{"title":"Unintended consequences of environmental regulation of maritime shipping: Carbon leakage to air shipping","authors":"Volodymyr Lugovskyy , Alexandre Skiba , David Terner","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We assess the expected impact of the upcoming International Maritime Organization’s CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> emissions cap on global maritime shipping. Using detailed data on U.S. imports—covering vessels, routes, emissions, and trade—we estimate a model that allows for substitution between maritime, air, and land transport. Our findings show that the cap will drive a shift to more carbon-intensive air and land transport, leading to an overall increase in transportation-related CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> emissions in both the short- and long-run. Additionally, it will cause significant welfare losses. Our findings support a case for more efficient alternative policy options.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104081"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143644220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104077
Elton Beqiraj , Qingqing Cao , Ralph De Haas , Raoul Minetti
We study how the organizational structure of global banks shapes their impact on macroeconomic stability. We develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model in which global banks can either delegate loan monitoring to local affiliates or exert control over affiliates’ monitoring activities, hiring loan officers centrally. Moreover, we allow global banks to transfer liquidity between parents and local affiliates through internal capital markets. We show that global banks with a centralized business model (with loan officers hired centrally by the parent and an intense use of internal capital markets) help mitigate the impact of financial shocks on the host economy. However, they may become a destabilizing factor following real shocks that hit the quality of firms’ investments. The model predictions are consistent with bank-level evidence from a large set of countries that host global bank affiliates.
{"title":"Global banking and macroeconomic stability. Liquidity, control, and monitoring","authors":"Elton Beqiraj , Qingqing Cao , Ralph De Haas , Raoul Minetti","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how the organizational structure of global banks shapes their impact on macroeconomic stability. We develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model in which global banks can either delegate loan monitoring to local affiliates or exert control over affiliates’ monitoring activities, hiring loan officers centrally. Moreover, we allow global banks to transfer liquidity between parents and local affiliates through internal capital markets. We show that global banks with a centralized business model (with loan officers hired centrally by the parent and an intense use of internal capital markets) help mitigate the impact of financial shocks on the host economy. However, they may become a destabilizing factor following real shocks that hit the quality of firms’ investments. The model predictions are consistent with bank-level evidence from a large set of countries that host global bank affiliates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104077"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143644221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-17DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104063
Callum Jones , Pau Rabanal
We use a two-country model with financial frictions and fiscal policy to study the role that changes in credit and fiscal positions play in explaining current account fluctuations. We estimate the model using data for the U.S. and a “rest-of-the-world” aggregate. We find that about 32 percent of U.S. current account balance fluctuations are due to domestic credit shocks, while fiscal shocks explain about 21 percent. Simple macroprudential rules that react to domestic credit conditions and countercyclical fiscal policy can help reduce global imbalances, and lead to a smaller and less volatile U.S. current account deficit.
{"title":"Credit Cycles, fiscal policy, and global imbalances","authors":"Callum Jones , Pau Rabanal","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104063","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104063","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a two-country model with financial frictions and fiscal policy to study the role that changes in credit and fiscal positions play in explaining current account fluctuations. We estimate the model using data for the U.S. and a “rest-of-the-world” aggregate. We find that about 32 percent of U.S. current account balance fluctuations are due to domestic credit shocks, while fiscal shocks explain about 21 percent. Simple macroprudential rules that react to domestic credit conditions and countercyclical fiscal policy can help reduce global imbalances, and lead to a smaller and less volatile U.S. current account deficit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104063"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-13DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104078
Céline Poilly , Fabien Tripier
Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, we first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We then build a two-region open-economy model and find that the precautionary saving behavior is the main driver of the recession, although this effect is reinforced by high exposure to import tariffs. The feedback effect resulting from trade connections with the Foreign country primarily influences the persistence of these dynamics.
{"title":"Regional trade policy uncertainty","authors":"Céline Poilly , Fabien Tripier","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104078","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104078","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, we first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We then build a two-region open-economy model and find that the precautionary saving behavior is the main driver of the recession, although this effect is reinforced by high exposure to import tariffs. The feedback effect resulting from trade connections with the Foreign country primarily influences the persistence of these dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104078"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143644219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104067
Martina Miotto , Luigi Pascali
The chronometer, one of the greatest inventions of the modern era, allowed for the first time for the precise measurement of longitude at sea. We examine the impact of this innovation on navigation and urbanization. Our identification strategy leverages the fact that the navigational benefits provided by the chronometer varied across different sea regions depending on the prevailing local weather conditions. Utilizing high-resolution data on climate, ship routes, and urbanization, we argue that the chronometer significantly altered transoceanic sailing routes. This, in turn, had profound effects on the expansion of the British Empire and the global distribution of cities and populations outside Europe.
{"title":"Solving the longitude puzzle: A story of clocks, ships and cities","authors":"Martina Miotto , Luigi Pascali","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104067","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104067","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The chronometer, one of the greatest inventions of the modern era, allowed for the first time for the precise measurement of longitude at sea. We examine the impact of this innovation on navigation and urbanization. Our identification strategy leverages the fact that the navigational benefits provided by the chronometer varied across different sea regions depending on the prevailing local weather conditions. Utilizing high-resolution data on climate, ship routes, and urbanization, we argue that the chronometer significantly altered transoceanic sailing routes. This, in turn, had profound effects on the expansion of the British Empire and the global distribution of cities and populations outside Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104067"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143682277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104076
Sushant Acharya , Edouard Challe
We study optimal monetary policy in a tractable Small Open Economy Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (SOE-HANK) model in which households face uninsured idiosyncratic risk and unequal bond-market access. We derive conditions under which optimal policy in our SOE-HANK economy entails domestic producer price stability, extending the ”open-economy divine coincidence” result of Galí and Monacelli (2005) beyond the Representative-Agent benchmark (SOE-RANK). Away from those conditions, inefficient fluctuations in consumption inequality generate monetary policy tradeoffs. Under plausible calibrations for the trade elasticities, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, and the cyclicality of income risk, the central bank stabilizes output and the exchange rate more than in SOE-RANK.
{"title":"Inequality and optimal monetary policy in the open economy","authors":"Sushant Acharya , Edouard Challe","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study optimal monetary policy in a tractable Small Open Economy Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (SOE-HANK) model in which households face uninsured idiosyncratic risk and unequal bond-market access. We derive conditions under which optimal policy in our SOE-HANK economy entails domestic producer price stability, extending the ”open-economy divine coincidence” result of Galí and Monacelli (2005) beyond the Representative-Agent benchmark (SOE-RANK). Away from those conditions, inefficient fluctuations in consumption inequality generate monetary policy tradeoffs. Under plausible calibrations for the trade elasticities, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, and the cyclicality of income risk, the central bank stabilizes output and the exchange rate more than in SOE-RANK.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104076"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143628658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-10DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104066
George Alessandria , Shafaat Yar Khan , Armen Khederlarian , Kim J. Ruhl , Joseph B. Steinberg
We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump.
{"title":"Trade war and peace: U.S.-China trade and tariff risk from 2015–2050","authors":"George Alessandria , Shafaat Yar Khan , Armen Khederlarian , Kim J. Ruhl , Joseph B. Steinberg","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104066"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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