Journal of International Economics最新文献

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Spillovers of US interest rates: Monetary policy & information effects

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104059

Santiago Camara

This paper quantifies the international spillovers of U.S. interest rates by accounting for the “Fed Response to News” channel. Using the identification strategy of Bauer and Swanson (2023a), we decompose monetary policy surprises into two components: a pure U.S. monetary policy shock and a “Fed Response to News” component around FOMC meetings. I find that a U.S. monetary tightening driven by pure policy shocks causes a global recessions, exchange rate depreciation, and tighter financial conditions. In contrast, a tightening driven by the “Fed Response to News” channel leads to an economic expansion, exchange rate appreciation, and looser financial conditions. Ignoring the “Fed Response to News” channel biases estimates, explaining recent atypical findings of expansionary impacts. By isolating these components, I reconcile traditional and recent views of monetary policy spillovers. Results are robust across advanced and emerging economies, alternative methods, and identification strategies.

引用次数: 0

A many-location home market effect and a home biased geography

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104057

Jordan J. Norris

In the presence of scale economies, industries are incentivized to localize production. Geography is key in determining where that localization happens. The Home Market Effect (HME) predicts that locations with the largest demand are the host and become net exporters. Yet, since its origin by Krugman (1980), the prediction has only been shown to hold in two-location models, therefore questioning its generality and empirical relevance. I offer a new formalization of the HME, provide succinct, sufficient conditions for its presence in an arbitrary, many-location geography, and reveal an intimate connection of the HME with a home biased geography. Intuitively, without home bias, consumers don’t buy locally; production is therefore not incentivized to localize near them.

引用次数: 0

Banking complexity in the global economy

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104055

Raoul Minetti , Giacomo Romanini , Oren Ziv

International lending flows are often intermediated through banking hubs and complex multi-national routing. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where global banks choose the path of direct or indirect lending through partner institutions in multiple countries. We show how conflating locational loan flows with ultimate lending biases results both by attributing ultimate lending to banking hubs, and by missing ultimate lending that occurs indirectly via third countries. We next study the effects of global banking complexity. Indirect lending allows countries to bypass shocked lending routes via alternative countries; however, it dilutes their ability to diversify sources of funds after shocks. The quantitative analysis reveals that banking complexity can exacerbate credit instability when countries feature heterogeneous banking efficiency.

引用次数: 0

Term premia and credit risk in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104045

Pavel Solís

This paper studies how U.S. monetary policy transmits to the sovereign yields of emerging markets without ignoring credit risk. To quantify the effects, I first identify different types of surprises in U.S. monetary policy using intraday data, and then propose a novel (three-part) decomposition of emerging market yields that accounts for credit risk. I find that surprises in U.S. monetary policy lead to a reassessment of policy rate expectations and a repricing of interest rate and credit risks in emerging markets. Specifically, investors expect monetary authorities in emerging markets to follow the monetary stance of the U.S. central bank rather than counteract it, unconventional U.S. monetary policies transmit to the term premia in emerging markets similarly to the U.S. term premium, and the sovereign credit risk in emerging markets responds to changes in U.S. monetary policy.

引用次数: 0

The cleanup of US manufacturing through pollution offshoring

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104046

Jaerim Choi , Jay Hyun , Gueyon Kim , Ziho Park

We study the role of offshoring in understanding long-run environmental impacts of trade liberalization and the cleanup of US manufacturing. Leveraging establishment-level pollution emissions and business activity data and a change in US trade policy toward China in the early 2000s, we show that US establishments decrease toxic emissions in response to a reduction in trade policy uncertainty. Emission abatement is mainly driven by a decline in pollution emission intensity. We provide comprehensive evidence that highlights the role of offshoring: US manufacturers, especially those that emit pollutants intensely, source from abroad and establish more subsidiaries in China following the event.

引用次数: 0

Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104042

Gita Gopinath , Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas , Andrea F. Presbitero , Petia Topalova

Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, we provide new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines and compare it to the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade, FDI, and portfolio flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc. While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs.

引用次数: 0

International trade and the allocation of capital within firms

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104023

S. Doerr , D. Marin , D. Suverato , T. Verdier

This paper introduces an internal capital market into a two-factor model of multi-segment firms. It features empire building by managers and informational frictions within the organization. The headquarters knows less about a segment’s true cost than its divisional managers do, so managers can over-report their costs and receive more capital than optimal. Our novel theory, which enables us to endogenize the cost structure of multi-segment firms, shows that international trade imposes discipline on divisional managers and improves the capital allocation between divisions, thereby lowering the conglomerate discount. The theory can explain why exporters exhibit a lower conglomerate discount than non-exporters. We exploit the China shock as an exogenous change to competition to confirm the model’s predictions with data on US companies.

引用次数: 0

Navigating trade uncertainty: The role of trade financing and the spillover effects

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104043

Mauricio Calani , Paula Margaretic , David Moreno

This paper exploits the exogenous changes of destination/origin-specific trade uncertainty (TU) to investigate the direct and spillover effects of TU on firms’ foreign-trade operations and credit outcomes. Using transaction-level data of Chilean firms and banks, we first show that increasing TU dampens export growth through a deterioration of firms’ working capital. This is especially true when exports are mainly financed by cash-in-advance, a payment mode that entails shorter and less permanent relationships between firms. Second, we find that increases in TU induce a bank-firm portfolio redistribution away from small firms toward large importers and firms involved in the global value chain (GVC). Our results are consistent with a risk-mitigating channel from banks that grant larger loans to firms that are perceived as relatively less risky during periods of high trade tensions. This way, TU shocks spill over to other firms not initially affected by TU through the bank credit market.

引用次数: 0

Optimal trade policy with international technology diffusion

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104038

Yan Bai , Keyu Jin , Dan Lu , Hanxi Wang

We study optimal dynamic trade policies in an Eaton–Kortum model with technology diffusion through trade. Trade affects technology by determining the distribution from which potential producers draw their insights. Our theory shows that optimal policies capture dynamic motives for a country to alter global technology. These policies take into account selection effects and country endowments that affect the degree and quality of diffusion. We provide explicit formulas showing that a country should subsidize imports that raise domestic learning quality and reduce export taxes when higher foreign productivity benefits the home country and increased exports improve foreign learning. We quantify these dynamic policies and their welfare implications using cross-country data.

引用次数: 0

The Percolation of Knowledge across Space

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104026

Pierre Cotterlaz , Arthur Guillouzouic

This paper shows that the negative effect of geographical distance on knowledge flows stems from how firms gain sources of knowledge through their existing network. We start by documenting two stylized facts. First, in aggregate, the distance elasticity of patent citations flows is sizable and has remained constant since the 1980s, despite the rise of the internet. Second, at the micro level, firms’ network of knowledge sources expands through existing knowledge sources. We introduce a framework featuring the latter phenomenon, and generating a negative distance elasticity in aggregate. The model predicts Pareto-distributed innovator sizes, and citation distances increasing with innovator size. These predictions hold well empirically. We investigate changes of the underlying parameters and geographical composition effects over the period. While the distance effect should have decreased with constant country composition, the rise of East Asian economies, associated to large distance elasticities, compensated lower frictions in other countries.

引用次数: 0

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