Journal of International Economics最新文献

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The standard errors of persistence

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104027

Timothy G. Conley, Morgan Kelly

Many studies of historical persistence find that modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. However they rely on data that often exhibit extreme spatial trends and autocorrelation, suggesting that their unusually large t-statistics may be due to inadequately controlling for spurious correlation. To analyze this we introduce a new regression procedure and two diagnostic tests of no treatment effect: (a) a placebo test where the treatment is replaced with spatial noise and (b) a synthetic outcomes test of the hypothesis that the outcome is generated by a trend plus a spatial noise process independent of the treatment. We then show how reliable regression results can be obtained by adding a low dimensional spatial basis to the regression of interest, and applying a large cluster standard error correction. Examining 30 persistence studies in leading journals we find that few approach significance at conventional levels. Our procedure applies to regressions with spatial observations more generally and is implemented in an open source package.

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The Empire project: Trade policy in interwar Canada 帝国计划：战时加拿大的贸易政策

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104024

Markus Lampe , Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke , Lorenz Reiter , Yoto V. Yotov

This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyse the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than use a dummy variable approach, we compute the impact of individual tariffs which varied substantially across goods, trade partners, and time. We perform a variety of counterfactual exercises to determine the impact of tariffs on trade flows. The overall impact of post-1929 tariff shifts, including the 1932 agreements, was relatively small, reflecting the fact that Canadian trade policy was already highly protectionist: trade agreements can have heterogeneous effects on participants because the shocks involved are different. Compared with a free trade counterfactual, the impact of the overall structure of protection on Canadian imports was large.

本文利用 1924 年至 1936 年间加拿大进口和关税的新数据集，对原产于 112 个国家的 1697 种商品进行分类，分析战时加拿大贸易政策（包括 1932 年渥太华贸易协定）对加拿大进口的影响。我们没有使用虚拟变量方法，而是计算了个别关税的影响，这些关税在不同商品、贸易伙伴和时间上有很大差异。我们进行了各种反事实演练，以确定关税对贸易流动的影响。1929 年后关税变化（包括 1932 年的协议）的总体影响相对较小，这反映出加拿大的贸易政策已经是高度保护主义的：贸易协议会对参与者产生不同的影响，因为所涉及的冲击是不同的。与自由贸易反事实相比，整体保护结构对加拿大进口的影响很大。

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Good connections : Bank specialization and the tariff elasticity of exports 良好的联系：银行专业化和出口关税弹性

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104021

Antoine Berthou , Thierry Mayer , Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier

Banks support exporters in foreign markets by providing them with credit, trade finance instruments or information about business opportunities. Repeated interactions with clients allow them to develop an expertise in specific markets – a geographical specialization. We develop a theoretical model where the specialization of banks translates into lower export costs for their clients through both the cost of credit and an information channel. The model predicts that the geographical specialization of banks tends to amplify the response of firm-level exports to a trade liberalization episode. We test this prediction on detailed French export data, using the 2011 free trade agreement between the European Union and Korea as a quasi-natural experiment. We find that the tariff elasticity of exports is larger in absolute terms for exporters which are connected to banks with a specialization in Korea. The sector specialization of the banks also matters, but to a lesser extent.

银行通过向出口商提供信贷、贸易融资工具或有关商机的信息，为他们在国外市场的发展提供支持。与客户的反复互动使银行形成了在特定市场的专业知识--地理专业化。我们建立了一个理论模型，在该模型中，银行的专业化通过信贷成本和信息渠道转化为客户较低的出口成本。根据该模型的预测，银行的地理专业化往往会放大公司层面的出口对贸易自由化事件的反应。我们以 2011 年欧盟与韩国之间的自由贸易协定作为准自然实验，通过详细的法国出口数据检验了这一预测。我们发现，与韩国专业银行有关联的出口商的出口关税弹性绝对值更大。银行的行业专业化也很重要，但程度较低。

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Cross-border shopping: Evidence and welfare implications for Switzerland 跨境购物：瑞士的证据和福利影响

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104015

Ariel Burstein , Sarah Lein , Jonathan Vogel

Consumers access foreign goods by purchasing them domestically or shopping abroad. We present new facts on cross-border shopping by Swiss households showing, for example, that prices of identical products are lower in neighboring countries, cross-border shopping shares fall with distance to the border, and price gaps and cross-border shopping shares rose following the 2015 Swiss Franc appreciation. We use a simple model of cross-border shopping to quantify how variation across space in cross-border shopping results in heterogeneous changes in cost-of-living in response to changes in international prices such as the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation and the 2020 Covid-19-related closing of the border.

消费者通过在国内购买或在国外购物来获取外国商品。我们介绍了瑞士家庭跨境购物的新情况，例如，相同产品在邻国的价格较低，跨境购物份额随距离边境的远近而下降，价格差距和跨境购物份额在2015年瑞士法郎升值后上升。我们使用一个简单的跨境购物模型来量化跨境购物的空间差异如何导致生活成本的异质性变化，以应对国际价格的变化，如 2015 年瑞士法郎升值和 2020 年与 Covid-19 相关的边境关闭。

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A macroeconomic perspective on taxing multinational enterprises 从宏观经济角度看跨国企业征税问题

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104022

Sebastian Dyrda , Guangbin Hong , Joseph B. Steinberg

We develop a general-equilibrium model to study the macroeconomic consequences of international profit shifting by multinational enterprises (MNEs). In our model, MNEs shift profits by exploiting intangible capital transfer pricing rules, which makes intangible investment more attractive and leads to higher output at home and abroad. We use the model to quantify the effects of two reforms proposed by the OECD: (i) reallocating MNEs’ profit tax bases to the countries where they sell their products; and (ii) a minimum global corporate income tax. Both reforms would reduce profit shifting substantially, but (i) would reduce global output whereas (ii) would have little macroeconomic impact. The reforms’ distributional implications would also be important. In high-tax countries, tax revenues would increase more than output declines, raising gross national income and enabling redistribution that could offset lower wages. In contrast, output and tax revenues would both drop in low-tax countries, significantly reducing national income.

我们建立了一个一般均衡模型来研究跨国企业国际利润转移的宏观经济后果。在我们的模型中，跨国企业利用无形资本转移定价规则转移利润，这使得无形投资更具吸引力，并导致国内外产出增加。我们利用该模型量化了经合组织提出的两项改革措施的效果：(i) 将跨国企业的利润税基重新分配给其产品销售所在国；(ii) 全球最低企业所得税。这两项改革都将大幅减少利润转移，但(i)将减少全球产出，而(ii)对宏观经济影响不大。改革对分配的影响也很重要。在高税率国家，税收的增长将超过产出的下降，从而提高国民总收入，实现再分配，抵消工资的下降。相反，在低税率国家，产出和税收都会下降，从而大大减少国民收入。

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An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty 英国脱欧不确定性的进口（蚂蚁）代价

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012

Alejandro G. Graziano , Kyle Handley , Nuno Limão

We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that a higher probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by 11 log points. This amounted to a 2 log point increase in manufactured goods prices and a 0.6 log point decrease in consumers’ real income.

我们估算了贸易政策不确定性（TPU）对 CES 进口价格指数的影响，重点关注英国退出欧盟（脱欧）的影响。我们的分析表明，英国脱欧的可能性越高，英国的进口价格指数就越高，因为现有产品的价格会提高，来自欧盟的产品种类会减少。我们发现有证据表明，2016 年公投带来的更高进口保护风险使当前的进口价格指数提高了 11 个对数点。这相当于制成品价格上涨 2 个对数点，消费者实际收入减少 0.6 个对数点。

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Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension 国际贸易中的三角不平等：被忽视的层面

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018

Reto Foellmi , Christian Hepenstrick , David Torun

Estimating trade costs is key to understanding the welfare effects of trade liberalizations. Cost minimization implies that the triangle inequality (TI) of international trade costs must hold for any three countries to avoid cross-border arbitrage. We show that re-routing opportunities might arise when trade costs change because a shipment through an intermediary becomes cheaper. The TI captures such re-routing opportunities. However, standard approaches to calculating the gains from trade liberalizations ignore this no-arbitrage condition. We outline an estimation routine that is model-consistent and respects the TI. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the welfare gains from re-routing after trade liberalizations can be substantial.

估算贸易成本是了解贸易自由化的福利效应的关键。成本最小化意味着国际贸易成本的三角不等式（TI）在任何三个国家都必须成立，以避免跨境套利。我们的研究表明，当贸易成本发生变化时，可能会出现重新选择贸易路线的机会，因为通过中间商运输成本会更低。贸易指数捕捉到了这种重新选择路线的机会。然而，计算贸易自由化收益的标准方法忽略了这一无套利条件。我们概述了一种既符合模型又尊重贸易指数的估算方法。反事实演练表明，贸易自由化后重新规划路线所带来的福利收益可能非常可观。

引用次数: 0

Trade under lockdown 被封锁的贸易

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104013

Antoine Berthou , Sebastian Stumpner

To curb the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on public health, many countries around the world introduced lockdown policies in 2020. This paper estimates the effect of these lockdowns on international trade flows using a rich dataset of monthly bilateral trade flows covering over 80% of world trade. We first document that both exporter and importer lockdowns significantly reduced trade flows, that this effect differed substantially across sectors, and has been declining over time. We then decompose this total effect into a direct effect of lockdowns on trade, and an indirect effect that is mediated by a decline in economic activity. Our results indicate that lockdowns reduced trade also conditional on economic activity, suggesting an important increase in trade costs due to lockdowns. A quantification exercise shows that the welfare consequences of these trade costs were sizable, amounting to about one sixth of the welfare loss under a complete return to autarky.

为遏制 Covid-19 大流行病对公共卫生的影响，世界上许多国家在 2020 年出台了封锁政策。本文利用涵盖世界 80% 以上贸易的丰富的月度双边贸易流量数据集，估算了这些封锁政策对国际贸易流量的影响。我们首先证明，出口国和进口国的封锁政策都显著减少了贸易流量，而且这种影响在不同部门之间存在很大差异，并随着时间的推移而不断下降。然后，我们将这一总体影响分解为封锁对贸易的直接影响和以经济活动下降为中介的间接影响。我们的研究结果表明，在经济活动减少的条件下，封锁也会减少贸易，这表明封锁导致贸易成本大幅增加。量化分析表明，这些贸易成本对福利的影响是巨大的，约为完全恢复自给自足条件下福利损失的六分之一。

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The rise of the walking dead: Zombie firms around the world 行尸走肉的崛起世界各地的僵尸企业

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104019

Bruno Albuquerque , Roshan Iyer

We build a comprehensive new dataset spanning listed and private nonfinancial zombie firms across Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets over the past two decades. Our findings reveal a global rise in the prevalence of these unproductive and unviable firms, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that private firms exhibit lower zombification rates due to their lower average survival rates. Our paper also offers a new perspective on zombie lending drivers: lenders may rationalize zombie lending based on overly optimistic expectations of a recovery in zombies’ future earnings. We then document that macroprudential policies targeting bank capital and loan restrictions can effectively mitigate the adverse effects of zombification. However, strengthening the banking sector alone may not suffice without robust insolvency frameworks prepared to manage firm restructuring and insolvency.

我们建立了一个全面的新数据集，涵盖过去二十年先进经济体和新兴市场的上市和私营非金融僵尸企业。我们的研究结果表明，尤其是自全球金融危机和 "科威德-19 "大流行以来，全球范围内这些非生产性、不具生存能力的企业的普遍程度有所上升。我们发现，私营企业的平均存活率较低，因此僵尸化率较低。我们的论文还为僵尸企业贷款驱动因素提供了一个新的视角：贷款人可能会基于对僵尸企业未来收益复苏的过度乐观预期而合理化僵尸企业贷款。随后，我们记录了针对银行资本和贷款限制的宏观审慎政策可以有效缓解僵尸化的不利影响。然而，如果没有强有力的破产框架来管理企业重组和破产，仅加强银行业可能是不够的。

引用次数: 0

The foreign firm wage premium in the Israeli tech sector 以色列科技行业的外国公司工资溢价

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104017

Noam Gruber

Foreign tech multinationals, which have entered Israel en masse in the past two decades, are known to use high wages to draw in the best talent. While paying higher wages no doubt contributes to the domestic economy, local tech firms have argued that the competition for talent inhibits their growth, and that foreign multinationals contribute less in terms of overall economic value compared to local firms. It is thus of great importance to estimate the foreign firm wage premium – by how much do foreign multinationals pay more for comparable talent? Using an extensive micro-level education data and exploiting worker movement and firm shutdowns/downsizing as an unbiased alternative to AKM methodology, this paper finds the foreign firm wage premium to be in the 3%–4% range, much less than previously estimated.

众所周知，在过去二十年中大规模进入以色列的外国科技跨国公司以高薪吸引最优秀的人才。虽然支付较高的工资无疑会促进国内经济的发展，但本地科技公司认为，人才竞争抑制了他们的发展，而且与本地公司相比，外国跨国公司对整体经济价值的贡献较小。因此，估算外国公司的工资溢价--外国跨国公司为可比人才支付更高的工资--具有重要意义。本文使用大量微观层面的教育数据，并利用工人流动和公司停业/缩编作为 AKM 方法的无偏替代方法，发现外企工资溢价在 3%-4% 之间，远低于之前的估计值。

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