Metodología para el análisis del efecto del cambio climático en la inundación costera: aplicación a Asturias

Abstract

One of the main threats to coastal systems and low-lying areas around the world is increasing flooding due to the effects of climate change, mainly due to sea-level rise. A regional-scale —O (100 km)— methodology to analyze the impact of coastal flooding is herein presented. The procedure combines high-resolution historical databases and projections of marine dynamics. Exposure is well represented over a high-resolution digital terrain model deeply improved including coastal defences. An empirical parameterization of the run-up that results from wave breaking is calibrated with field data, and further improved to evaluate flooding in ports. Such run-up feeds an efficient two-dimensional hydrodynamic model that allows the characterization of the inundation inland. Using scenarios that combine regional projections of sea-level rise with extreme events, the proposed methodology has been applied to the coast of Asturias (North of Spain).