Análisis del impacto del cambio climático en el ciclo de sedimentos de la cuenca del río Ésera (España) mediante un modelo hidrológico distribuido

Abstract

In this study, the distributed hydrological and sedimentological model TETIS was applied in the Ésera River catchment (Spain). The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of Climate Change on the sediment dynamics in the catchment and the siltation of Barasona reservoir that drains it. The implementation of the sediment sub-model was performed using the volumes of sediment deposited in the reservoir and measured from three historical bathymetries as reference. To analyze the effects of Climate Change, the precipitation and temperature series obtained from the PRUDENCE project, for the current and future A2 and B2 climate scenarios have been used as model inputs. From the results of the simulations with TETIS, it can be concluded that the flow discharges tend to decrease in the future as a direct result of reduced precipitation, increased potential evapotranspiration and reduced soil moisture within the catchment. Despite the trend towards more torrential rainfall, model results indicate that floods will also tend to decrease, more markedly for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario, due to the large decrease in soil moisture already mentioned. Moreover, sediment transport tends to decrease for the A2 and increase for the B2 scenario. This situation is reflected in the siltation rates of Barasona reservoir, wherein for B2 no substantial changes are expected, as compared to the situation of the current climate condition, whereas for the A2 scenario a significantly longer service life is expected.