The Sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Changing Climate: Past, Present, and Future

IF 25.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Reviews of Geophysics Pub Date : 2020-08-15 DOI:10.1029/2019RG000663
T. L. Noble, E. J. Rohling, A. R. A. Aitken, H. C. Bostock, Z. Chase, N. Gomez, L. M. Jong, M. A. King, A. N. Mackintosh, F. S. McCormack, R. M. McKay, L. Menviel, S. J. Phipps, M. E. Weber, C. J. Fogwill, B. Gayen, N. R. Golledge, D. E. Gwyther, A. McC. Hogg, Y. M. Martos, B. Pena-Molino, J. Roberts, T. van de Flierdt, T. Williams
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引用次数: 55

Abstract

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic-enhanced climate forcing. Paleoenvironmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly coupled to the climate system during the past and indicate the potential for accelerated and sustained Antarctic ice mass loss into the future. Modern observations by contrast suggest that the AIS has only just started to respond to climate change in recent decades. The maximum projected sea level contribution from Antarctica to 2100 has increased significantly since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report, although estimates continue to evolve with new observational and theoretical advances. This review brings together recent literature highlighting the progress made on the known processes and feedbacks that influence the stability of the AIS. Reducing the uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the future sea level response to AIS change requires a multidisciplinary approach that integrates knowledge of the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earth, atmosphere, and ocean systems and across time scales of days to millennia. We start by reviewing the processes affecting AIS mass change, from atmospheric and oceanic processes acting on short time scales (days to decades), through to ice processes acting on intermediate time scales (decades to centuries) and the response to solid Earth interactions over longer time scales (decades to millennia). We then review the evidence of AIS changes from the Pliocene to the present and consider the projections of global sea level rise and their consequences. We highlight priority research areas required to improve our understanding of the processes and feedbacks governing AIS change.

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南极冰盖对气候变化的敏感性:过去、现在和未来
南极冰盖(AIS)与当前人为增强的气候强迫不平衡。古环境记录和冰盖模型表明,AIS系统在过去与气候系统紧密耦合,并表明未来南极冰盖可能会加速和持续损失。相比之下,现代观测表明,近几十年来,AIS才刚刚开始对气候变化做出反应。自政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第五次评估报告发布以来,南极洲对2100年海平面贡献的最大预估已显著增加,尽管预估仍在随着新的观测和理论进展而不断变化。本综述汇集了最近的文献,强调了在影响AIS稳定性的已知过程和反馈方面取得的进展。要减少未来海平面对AIS变化响应的幅度和时间的不确定性,需要采用多学科方法,整合冰盖、固体地球、大气和海洋系统之间的相互作用知识,跨越数天到数千年的时间尺度。我们首先回顾影响AIS质量变化的过程,从作用于短时间尺度(天到几十年)的大气和海洋过程,到作用于中间时间尺度(几十年到几百年)的冰过程,以及对较长时间尺度(几十年到几千年)的固体地球相互作用的响应。然后,我们回顾了从上新世到现在的AIS变化的证据,并考虑了全球海平面上升的预测及其后果。我们强调了需要优先研究的领域,以提高我们对AIS变化的过程和反馈的理解。
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来源期刊
Reviews of Geophysics
Reviews of Geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
50.30
自引率
0.80%
发文量
28
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Geophysics Reviews (ROG) offers comprehensive overviews and syntheses of current research across various domains of the Earth and space sciences. Our goal is to present accessible and engaging reviews that cater to the diverse AGU community. While authorship is typically by invitation, we warmly encourage readers and potential authors to share their suggestions with our editors.
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